Beneil Dariush vs Charles Oliveira
According to UFC Stats Charles Oliveira has been dropped in his last 3 fights. Islam, Justin and Dustin all dropped him. I count the first RD 1 in the Chandler fight as a drop but the UFC Stats doesn’t so it should be 4. The biggest reason I see that Dustin and Justin lost as both seemed to be afraid of Charles guard and just lacked sub defense. I think Charles' guard is overstated as Chandler and Islam spent a significant amount of time in Charles’ guard and came away unscathed. If the trend continues, taking advantage of Charles getting hurt and going to ground will be paramount. However, Dustin and Justin basically told him to get back up as they were afraid to be in Charles guard and failed to capitalize on Charles being hurt unlike Chandler and Islam did. Beneil will have no issue with being on top of Charles Oliveira. After watching the grappling exchanges with Garmot and Ferguson you can see how good Benny’s top game is. Beneil’s ability to stay on top in scramble positions is one of the biggest predictors in maintaining top control in grappling exchanges. Honestly when it comes to the ground game I give Beniel the edge Benny mixes his striking and grappling to get the fight to the ground.. I haven't seen tape on Beneil getting caught coming in with strikes with his takedown entries. When it comes to the striking department It seems Charles has more weapons Beniel will have to address Charles teep kick and knees up the middle. How I see this fight going is striking exchanges will be even perhaps Benny might be able to continue streak of dropping Charles but when it comes to the grappling exchanges I see Benny winning those. I predict Beneil being able to get on top allude Charles sub attempts and land enough GnP to avoid stand ups and win by decision. I put some of @NateLatshaw stats from these guys give him a follow. These stats are pretty much in line with my narrative. You gotta go with the guy who has better takedown defense, control time, striking differential.
