Breaking Down Ngannou vs Gane: UFC 270

Let's take a look at this line 
 

Currently Caesars has the odds sitting -155 Gane +130 Ngannou.  Gane's ability to pick Derrick apart was great.  The performance was outstanding it was a flawless victory.  Derrick quickly shown that one fight did not define he fought another Heavyweight with good footwork and movement and quickly shut up any naysayers.  Like I learned with Katter last week we can define a fighter by one fight there are times where we say a fighter has "Stolen their Soul" that comes with accumulation of damage and age.  Or Derrick Lewis situation fighting in his hometown for the title was to much pressure.  He admitted and he had bad night in the office.  Just like we saw last week -240 Giga Chikadze. Yes the mans run to that title fight was impressive but we took that run coupled by Holloway beatdown and just dismissed what the man has done.  This line is indicative of what you have last seen which is impressive.  I am going to post the round by round strikes and you can understand why bettors are leaning Gane and later on I'll post the numbers why shouldn't.   

Lewis vs Gane 

This shit is flawless but ignores Gane's game plan and Francis Ngannou's ability to shut anyone's lights out at any given moment.  

Gane's game plan is based on footwork and feint's in order to gain timing and tendencies of his opponent.  He feels his opponents out in the first round for the most part obviously you are going to have certain performances that go against narrative but for the most part Ciryl Gane in 1st round is only collecting data he probes plots and stays on the outside to get the reads for his next round of attacks in for the next rounds.  

I didn't put all of his performances because obviously Lewis fight was different and Dos Santos was way past his prime. Unless you are a lesser an opponent and don't respect his game this is how he is going to fight.

1st Round	Total Strikes
Ciryl Gane	16 of 32
Alexander Volkov	26 of 26
Jairzinho Rozenstruik	10 of 20
Cirly Gane	16 of 24
Ciryl Gane	10 of 38
Tanner Bowser	10 of 31

Francis on the other hand only has to hit you one time.  The man hasn't been dropped in the fight. He has not been hurt.  Gane isn't gong to to grapple with him.  Other than the first Stipe fight and his completely gun shy mental breakdown which we call the Derrick Lewis fight his opponents haven't left the 2nd round with the majority being first round finishes.  How are you going to get reads to implement your game if you major concern is surviving.  Ngannous by KO 2nd round.