Tuesday, November 2, 2021

The only betting stat you need for UFC 268


Rose is facing Weili Zhang again. They first fought on April 24, 2021 and then this happened.


First round finish, not a fluke, she dropped, swarmed her with hammer fists and the ref saved Zhang.  I don't believe in immediate rematches after a clear finish there isn't a point to it if there are other challengers in the wing.   I also don't understand this betting line below.



Rose is the best she has proven over and over again. She already beat her, handily. She only lost the belt to Andrade after holding on to an armbar to long and she got slammed on her head.  She was winning that fight but this is MMA. There are so many ways to win and to lose.  I can go on and on about Thug Rose but I digress.  The only thing you need to know this week is for Challengers seeking an immediate rematch after losing to their opponent in a Title Fight. The Challenger is 1-9 in immediate rematches against the Champion.  Randy Couture being the only person to get the belt back after an immediate rematch.  Get your bets in.  The Champion has 90% chance they win the rematch.  




Wednesday, January 13, 2021

The Slips #1

 

So sports betting has been legal in DC for sometime now.  I was reluctant to sharing my bets mainly out of fear of losing.  But that’s going to happen, the question is are you winning the majority of the time.  I can tell you honestly that I wasn’t up until my recent wager.  Sometimes because it was a close fight and the decisions didn’t go my way.  Sometimes I simply didn’t do the research and relied on recency bias.  A lot of times I bet the day of 3 or 5 dollars on one of my favorites.  So I started writing this Saturday and didn’t finish but I was going to go on and rant on by why I made my pick and how everyone else were wrong about Kevin Holland and Charles Oliveira.  I could go on about Kevin Holland’s 9 inch reach advantage his youth advantage over inactive 41 year old Jacare. Or I could talk about the Oliveira 7 fight win streak and all being finishes and Tony’s non-existent edge on grappling since Oliveira has 19 finishes via submission one those being rare in MMA calf slicer.  The narrative that I thought would play out happened.  I felt strong enough to put a bet on it and write about it.  Strong enough to where I would I tell Vicki we need to mortgage the house on it. I would never do that but sometimes I feel things are just locks.  Writing this blog has helped me recognize that these “locks” or “I told you so” aren’t going to come every card. I felt very strongly about this card.  So I picked Holland and Oliveira. It worked