Relationships between fight outcomes and the 25 foot cage

Relationships between fight outcomes and the 25 foot cage.

The UFC normally is in the 30 foot cage on rare occasions has the Octagon been in 25 foot cage. Since moving out the VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, FL a large arena where there was 30 foot cage.  After holding three events in Jacksonville, the UFC has now moved back to Vegas in the UFC Apex Center home to Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender (DWTNC) series where the cage is 25 feet.  Obviously the biggest difference is space.  Cage awareness is definitely a skill.  Knowing where you have space to back up and when you need to circle out is in important.  You have less space to be evasive and better chance to put your opponent against the cage.  My first hypothesis is that an aggressive fighter with higher degree of output and takedowns would have a higher probability of winning the fight but that’s the case for all fights so I will take a look at the finishing rate.

Dana’s White Tuesday Night Contender Season Finishing Rate

Season 1	25 out of 40	63%
Season 2	33 out of 40	83%
Season 3	25 out of 49	51%

 

The level of talent and the go for broke attitude to get a contract has a lot to do with those numbers but we will be comparing the last three fights in Jacksonville with the next three fights in at the UFC Apex. The most comparable situation to DWTNCS is The Ultimate Fighter: Finale.  In the early 2000s these fights were held at the Palms Casino a smaller venue that used the 25 foot cage. Also in terms of skill fighters from the show are coming off the regional scene and a win in the finale is guaranteed path to an extended UFC contract. 

Ultimate fighter finale 7:  Forrest Griffin vs Rampage Jackson	7  out of 10	10
Ultimate fighter finale 6: Hughes vs Serra	8 out of 9	9
Ultimate fighter finale 5: Penn vs Pulver	9 out of 9	9
	24	28	0.857142857

 

Just look at these stats I think its safe to say that the smaller cage has an effect.  On average the finishing rate for an event is 44% -  48%

 

30 Foot Cage	Finishes	25 Foot Cage	Finishes
UFC 249	5 out of 11	Fight Night: Woodley vs Burns	6 out of 11
Fight Night: Smith vs Teixeira	5 out of 10	UFC 250	7 out of 12
Fight Night: Overeem vs Harris	5 out of 11
Average	46.88%