Friday, January 24, 2020


UFC 246 Results

That was a horrible showing for Cowboy.  Like I expected, Cowboy couldn’t get started quick enough.  He couldn’t get out of the first round. Yay Cowboy didn’t show up. It was a bad showing, 40 seconds, 0 strikes landed, got jarred by shoulder strikes. Not his best performance.
So, if there was an underdog pick to throw $5 dollars it should have Roxanne “Motherfucking: Modafferi.  Wow, what a performance.  Was beating her up on the feet.  Yes, Macyee did clearly hurt her leg in the second round. But with Maycee being -1000 favorite I could have made some money. 
I think I betted appropriately for Cowboy fight but one stat i do want to put out is that Roxanne would be on a 4 fight when streak if her opponents had to forfeit for missing weight.  She seems to be finally fitting into this weight class when her opponents don’t have to struggle to cut those extra pounds. 
The fight I do have issue with my betting strategy has to be the Carlos Diego Ferrira fight.  If I’m confident in the fight I need to bet more if they are the favorite. Then there was the Fili fight.  It was close. I thought Fili would be able to pop back up after being takedown but Sodiq had good top control.  I knew Sodiq was a Llyod Irvin guy and so has to have a good ground game but his top control in the 2nd definitely took the round.  Fili had his moments, but I think Sodiq is one to watch. 

Where are we at with my totals Fili $10 + Cerrone $5 I’m down $15 but wait…..  I did win at -255 so I get a cool winnings of $5.88. Leaving bank roll at $240.88. I lost 9.12

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. dos Santos

And 

Bellator 238: Budd Vs. Cyborg
I feel like I wasn’t aggressive so I’m going to change my strategy some.  Also as a first I’m going to talking about a Bellator fight.

(+295) Julia Budd vs (-556) Cristane Justino
I’m picking Budd guys. Yeah I think Cyborg has made a career of beating up inexperienced or undersized women.  Budd is not small and has been in the sport awhile and has fought a lot of named opponents.  I’ve got $30 on Budd.

(-150)  Sara McMann vs (+140) Lina Lansberg
My next pick is Sara McMann the crazy thing about this fight is she is still the favorite after coming off two loses and time off from having her baby. Lina Lansburg is coming in with a two fight win streak especially her last win against Macey Chiasson promising Ultimate Fighter Winner Season 28.  McMann opened up at +120 and that has swiftly changed. The sharp money is on McMann because McMann has been dominate in those two loses before getting caught in submissions while being on top.  McMann being the Olympic Silver Medalist in wrestling counters all of Lina’s strengths in grappling. Lina Lansberg is World Champion in Muay Thai. McMann has never been stopped from strikes other than that knee she caught from Ronda. I’m confident she can close the distance without getting caught coming in. The most important aspect is that McMann doesn’t have to worry about being caught in a submission since Lina strengths are clinching and striking she has 0 submission wins.  I’m putting down $40 on McMann

Thursday, January 16, 2020

UFC 246

It's been awhile since i’ve posted. Most of the sports betting news I chosen to share via Facebook.  Mainly because the developments are just stories from the Post or a local news reporter and not my own writing.  If you haven’t been following DC enacted emergency legislation in order to get a jump on sports betting ahead of the other nearby states.  Also it could take advantage of the revenue from the fall sports such as MLB Playoffs, NBA, NHL NFL, the  never-ending season of MMA or even boring ass soccer.  The whole thing has been riddled with issues.  Rather than read my 8th grade description of what happened, please read this nice Washington Post article.


In my previous Money Bets, I have focused on one fight.  My thought pattern has changed on this approach.  I joined a football spread pool and I did horribly.  It led me to seek out experts who were also bad a picking winners but during the course of my discovery. I did get some insights in the game of sports betting.  One, don’t throw all your eggs into one basket.  Often I would do a research for one fight and somehow the MMA gods would pull that fight for me, leaving me scrambling to find a new pick.  What I learned was to pick a couple of fights and spread your bets around changing your wagers depending on your confidence level. I’ve got about 7 UFC events before this thing goes live so let’s see how this new system works.  I’m giving myself a $250 bankroll. 

UFC 246



Welterweight
vs.
Women's Bantamweight
vs.
Heavyweight
vs.
Women's Strawweight
vs.
Lightweight
vs.
Women's Flyweight
vs.
Featherweight
vs.
Lightweight
vs.
Featherweight
vs.
Grant Dawson
Light Heavyweight
Aleksa Camur
vs.
Flyweight
vs.
Askar Askarov
Bantamweight
vs.
Ode Osbourne
Women's Flyweight
Sabina Mazo
vs.

(-300) Conor McGregor vs (+250) Donald Cerrone

I’ve been mulling this fight over and over again.  Trying to justify a bet against Conor.  I feel the line should be closer but this is the thing about Cowboy.  He doesn’t show up for these fights.  He’s been given this for a #1 contender slot so many times.  This is the biggest stage yet.  This is the biggest payday of his career and even despite his title shot lost against Dos Anjos this is the biggest fight of his career.  I think Cowboy is a live dog in this fight ONLY if he can get pass the first round.  Once it gets pass round one, the fight is all Cowboy.  So I’m putting $5 on Cowboy

(+215) Anthony Pettis vs (-255) Carlos Diego Ferrera

Here is the thing I think Pettis messed himself up going down to 145lbs. I don’t think he can get in there with a strong guy who is going to just walk him down and beat on him.  Pettis has been making an excuse or getting hurt in these fights trying to  find a way out.  I hope the god you don’t follow me on twitter but if you do I’ve been banging the drum about fixing Mairbek Tismumov’s Visa issues so he can fight in the US.  I was amazed when Feirrera just walk that guy down and beat him up for the three downs. Tismumov did catch Ferrera but he was able to come back and keep up the pressure. The guy has chin on him.  I’ve got $15 on Ferrera

(+115) Andre Fili vs (-130) Sodiq Yusuff

First off the last thing I want to do is bet against a Nigerian from the DMV.  He has looked good, he is athletic but I think the betting lines should be somewhere around even or with Fili having the slight edge.  It really comes down to experience. Fili looked real good in his last fight and it looks if he has finally put it all together.  I’ve got $10 on Fili