Relationships between fight outcomes and the 25 foot cage

Relationships between fight outcomes and the 25 foot cage.

The UFC normally is in the 30 foot cage on rare occasions has the Octagon been in 25 foot cage. Since moving out the VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, FL a large arena where there was 30 foot cage.  After holding three events in Jacksonville, the UFC has now moved back to Vegas in the UFC Apex Center home to Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender (DWTNC) series where the cage is 25 feet.  Obviously the biggest difference is space.  Cage awareness is definitely a skill.  Knowing where you have space to back up and when you need to circle out is in important.  You have less space to be evasive and better chance to put your opponent against the cage.  My first hypothesis is that an aggressive fighter with higher degree of output and takedowns would have a higher probability of winning the fight but that’s the case for all fights so I will take a look at the finishing rate.

Dana’s White Tuesday Night Contender Season Finishing Rate

Season 1	25 out of 40	63%
Season 2	33 out of 40	83%
Season 3	25 out of 49	51%

 

The level of talent and the go for broke attitude to get a contract has a lot to do with those numbers but we will be comparing the last three fights in Jacksonville with the next three fights in at the UFC Apex. The most comparable situation to DWTNCS is The Ultimate Fighter: Finale.  In the early 2000s these fights were held at the Palms Casino a smaller venue that used the 25 foot cage. Also in terms of skill fighters from the show are coming off the regional scene and a win in the finale is guaranteed path to an extended UFC contract. 

Ultimate fighter finale 7:  Forrest Griffin vs Rampage Jackson	7  out of 10	10
Ultimate fighter finale 6: Hughes vs Serra	8 out of 9	9
Ultimate fighter finale 5: Penn vs Pulver	9 out of 9	9
	24	28	0.857142857

 

Just look at these stats I think its safe to say that the smaller cage has an effect.  On average the finishing rate for an event is 44% -  48%

 

30 Foot Cage	Finishes	25 Foot Cage	Finishes
UFC 249	5 out of 11	Fight Night: Woodley vs Burns	6 out of 11
Fight Night: Smith vs Teixeira	5 out of 10	UFC 250	7 out of 12
Fight Night: Overeem vs Harris	5 out of 11
Average	46.88%

UFC 248 Recap

So bank roll after UFC the Anderson vs Blachowicz Card is $152.70

I did not put pen to paper but I had to help my cousin move so I did speak out into existence so that counts.  I wanted to put the house on Gerald Meerschaert. but I only put $30 that turned into $43.00 so I'm back up to 175.70.  

I've got $50 bucks on Kevin Lee at -130.  

UFC 247 Recap and Anderson vs Blachowicz

I got screwed the judging was horrid and I basically got screwed out of $40 bucks.  The judge who scored the Jones fight 49-46 also gave Andre Ewell 30-27 and a gave Trevin Giles the first round despite the fact he spent the 4 minutes  of round defending a rear naked choke.  I’m also done another $25 because Chookagian has no ground and got stopped in the third.  I’m not mad at that bet.  I thought i was getting pretty good odds considering Chookagian’s style.  I can’t be pissed at that bet but I’m pissed in the judging it really screwed me.  What I’m happy about is that If you had a competent judge.  I just confirmed on Twitter that Ewell severely injured his arm.  He didn’t state that it was broke but he admitted he was fighting with one arm. Also well noted even despite that the judges gave it to Giles my initial pick of Arroyo probably would have worked out.  If you can barely beat welterweight taking the fight on days notice you probably couldn’t beat a true middleweight with a full camp.   I guess its time to move on from the horrible judging from UFC 247 because this MMA train won’t stop.  

Took a hit to the roll $237.55 - $65 = $172.55.  Let’s try not go on tilt on this card. 

UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. Błachowicz 2

Corey Anderson (-190) vs Jan Blachowicz (+165)

I would have loved to get on the opening line of this fight.  As it opened up at -145 and has gotten back up to -210 today of the weigh-ins  Initially started writing this on Thursday.  I’ve talked about Corey before the guy has turned a corner and he is just getting better.  Put the house on Anderson or just $30.

Diego Sanchez (+145) vs Michel Pereira (-155)

I picking Diego here. Normally I would stay away with him leaving Jackson/Wink but I’m picking him for one reason and one reason only. CARDIO.  Michel Pereira will be doing flips, spinning shit, and dancing around the cage.  He is also a huge Welterweight and the fact he does all those explosive movements he is going to gas.  Let’s look for Sanchez to take this to the ground.  I’ve got $7 on Sanchez.

UFC 247

So I lost $3.33 on my last bunch of bets. I’m bankroll is down from 240.88 to 237.55.  So that my current bankroll I haven’t lost the house yet but I’ve lost a Chop’t Salad $12.45 since i started out with $250.00

UFC 247

Jon Jones (c)	vs.	Dominick Reyes
Valentina Shevchenko (c)	vs.	Katlyn Chookagian
Juan Adams	vs.	Justin Tafa
Mirsad Bektić	vs.	Dan Ige
Derrick Lewis	vs.	Ilir Latifi
Trevin Giles	vs.	Antonio Arroyo
Alex Morono	vs.	Kalinn Williams
Lauren Murphy	vs.	Andrea Lee
Miles Johns	vs.	Mario Bautista
Journey Newson	vs.	Domingo Pilarte
Andre Ewell	vs.	Jonathan Martinez
Austin Lingo	vs.	Youseff Zalal

Andre Ewell (-128) vs Jonathan Martinez (+118)

I kinda don’t understand why Andre Ewell is the favorite none of the fights Ewell has won are fighters who are currently in the UFC beating Renan Baro post USADA is not a feat.  Martinez only UFC to low fight IQ Andre Soukhamthath (watch the 3rd round of Sean O’Malley fight to the IQ reference). Andre is a big bantamweight who tends to fade in the 3rd.  He is very aggresive which really complements Martinez’s style either of them push the ground game much but look out for Martinez’s counters in the match up i got $30 on this matchup.

We are going to get into Prop bets for the first time here. So were are going to pick a Prop bet for the Shevchenko vs Cookagian fight.  Since the straight moneyline for this fight is insane. Valentina is around (-855) favorite and in some books (-1600). For  reference I get my moneylines from 5dimes.  At those lines there isn’t really any value in betting Valetina and I hate Chookagian fighting style and i can’t wait for her to get KO’d and will be against her at all times.  Even with that emotion i will not bet the moneyline because there is no value however

Valentina Shevchenko (-125) to win by decision. 

Shevchenko is a monster she is Muay Thai specialist but she is a complete fighter and I think P4P best female fighter in the world.  She won that second fight with Amanda Nunes.   However, how dominant she might be those finishes are hard to get when a fighter doesn’t want to engage.  Chookagian game plan will be circle, not engage, and lose by decision.  He favorite strikes are air strikes.  She will unload combos at the air at will.  God I hate fighting style.  She is like Holly Holm but more boring and less finishes and a worst Instagram.  So I got $25 on Valentina to win by decision.

Trevin Giles (-145) vs Antonio Arroyo (+135)

I got pick a an underdog Antonio is my underdog for this card.  Trevin Giles is an undersized Middleweight. He will have the crowd behind him which will either help or hurt as a Houston Cop.  I’ve got Arroyo because he has got a lot of power and good ground defense.  I’m was impressed with his last loss because it was against a ground specialist with the majority of his wins were by submission.  Being able to get out of bad positions and back to your feet is a must at this level.  Look at for the body kick by Arroyo.  I’ve got $20 on Arroyo.  This is why I stop doing the whole deep dive on one fight because as you can see I think half the time a fight gets pulled its during or right after weigh-ins.  Antonio Arroyo successfully made weight but ended up passing out afterwards.  He was taken to the hospital. Now taking the fight on one day notice is James Krause.  Whose welterweight and basically just taking the fight at his walking around weight.  The line on this fight is even, Vegas thinks he is a live dog and with 6 fight win streak I’m going to put $10 James Krause at -110

UFC 246 Results

That was a horrible showing for Cowboy.  Like I expected, Cowboy couldn’t get started quick enough.  He couldn’t get out of the first round. Yay Cowboy didn’t show up. It was a bad showing, 40 seconds, 0 strikes landed, got jarred by shoulder strikes. Not his best performance.

So, if there was an underdog pick to throw $5 dollars it should have Roxanne “Motherfucking: Modafferi.  Wow, what a performance.  Was beating her up on the feet.  Yes, Macyee did clearly hurt her leg in the second round. But with Maycee being -1000 favorite I could have made some money. 

I think I betted appropriately for Cowboy fight but one stat i do want to put out is that Roxanne would be on a 4 fight when streak if her opponents had to forfeit for missing weight.  She seems to be finally fitting into this weight class when her opponents don’t have to struggle to cut those extra pounds. 

The fight I do have issue with my betting strategy has to be the Carlos Diego Ferrira fight.  If I’m confident in the fight I need to bet more if they are the favorite. Then there was the Fili fight.  It was close. I thought Fili would be able to pop back up after being takedown but Sodiq had good top control.  I knew Sodiq was a Llyod Irvin guy and so has to have a good ground game but his top control in the 2nd definitely took the round.  Fili had his moments, but I think Sodiq is one to watch. 

Where are we at with my totals Fili $10 + Cerrone $5 I’m down $15 but wait…..  I did win at -255 so I get a cool winnings of $5.88. Leaving bank roll at $240.88. I lost 9.12

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. dos Santos

And 

Bellator 238: Budd Vs. Cyborg

I feel like I wasn’t aggressive so I’m going to change my strategy some.  Also as a first I’m going to talking about a Bellator fight.

(+295) Julia Budd vs (-556) Cristane Justino

I’m picking Budd guys. Yeah I think Cyborg has made a career of beating up inexperienced or undersized women.  Budd is not small and has been in the sport awhile and has fought a lot of named opponents.  I’ve got $30 on Budd.

(-150)  Sara McMann vs (+140) Lina Lansberg

My next pick is Sara McMann the crazy thing about this fight is she is still the favorite after coming off two loses and time off from having her baby. Lina Lansburg is coming in with a two fight win streak especially her last win against Macey Chiasson promising Ultimate Fighter Winner Season 28.  McMann opened up at +120 and that has swiftly changed. The sharp money is on McMann because McMann has been dominate in those two loses before getting caught in submissions while being on top.  McMann being the Olympic Silver Medalist in wrestling counters all of Lina’s strengths in grappling. Lina Lansberg is World Champion in Muay Thai. McMann has never been stopped from strikes other than that knee she caught from Ronda. I’m confident she can close the distance without getting caught coming in. The most important aspect is that McMann doesn’t have to worry about being caught in a submission since Lina strengths are clinching and striking she has 0 submission wins.  I’m putting down $40 on McMann

UFC 246

It's been awhile since i’ve posted. Most of the sports betting news I chosen to share via Facebook.  Mainly because the developments are just stories from the Post or a local news reporter and not my own writing.  If you haven’t been following DC enacted emergency legislation in order to get a jump on sports betting ahead of the other nearby states.  Also it could take advantage of the revenue from the fall sports such as MLB Playoffs, NBA, NHL NFL, the  never-ending season of MMA or even boring ass soccer.  The whole thing has been riddled with issues.  Rather than read my 8th grade description of what happened, please read this nice Washington Post article.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/dc-politics/dc-sports-betting-app-to-go-live-in-march-capital-one-arena-seeks-sportsbook/2020/01/10/c30d7eaa-33e6-11ea-a053-dc6d944ba776_story.html

In my previous Money Bets, I have focused on one fight.  My thought pattern has changed on this approach.  I joined a football spread pool and I did horribly.  It led me to seek out experts who were also bad a picking winners but during the course of my discovery. I did get some insights in the game of sports betting.  One, don’t throw all your eggs into one basket.  Often I would do a research for one fight and somehow the MMA gods would pull that fight for me, leaving me scrambling to find a new pick.  What I learned was to pick a couple of fights and spread your bets around changing your wagers depending on your confidence level. I’ve got about 7 UFC events before this thing goes live so let’s see how this new system works.  I’m giving myself a $250 bankroll. 

UFC 246

Welterweight	Conor McGregor	vs.	Donald Cerrone
Women's Bantamweight	Holly Holm	vs.	Raquel Pennington
Heavyweight	Aleksei Oleinik	vs.	Maurice Greene
Women's Strawweight	Cláudia Gadelha	vs.	Alexa Grasso
Lightweight	Anthony Pettis	vs.	Carlos Diego Ferreira
Women's Flyweight	Roxanne Modafferi	vs.	Maycee Barber
Featherweight	Andre Fili	vs.	Sodiq Yusuff
Lightweight	Drew Dober	vs.	Nasrat Haqparast
Featherweight	Chas Skelly	vs.	Grant Dawson
Light Heavyweight	Aleksa Camur	vs.	Justin Ledet
Flyweight	Tim Elliott	vs.	Askar Askarov
Bantamweight	Brian Kelleher	vs.	Ode Osbourne
Women's Flyweight	Sabina Mazo	vs.	JJ Aldrich

(-300) Conor McGregor vs (+250) Donald Cerrone

I’ve been mulling this fight over and over again.  Trying to justify a bet against Conor.  I feel the line should be closer but this is the thing about Cowboy.  He doesn’t show up for these fights.  He’s been given this for a #1 contender slot so many times.  This is the biggest stage yet.  This is the biggest payday of his career and even despite his title shot lost against Dos Anjos this is the biggest fight of his career.  I think Cowboy is a live dog in this fight ONLY if he can get pass the first round.  Once it gets pass round one, the fight is all Cowboy.  So I’m putting $5 on Cowboy

(+215) Anthony Pettis vs (-255) Carlos Diego Ferrera

Here is the thing I think Pettis messed himself up going down to 145lbs. I don’t think he can get in there with a strong guy who is going to just walk him down and beat on him.  Pettis has been making an excuse or getting hurt in these fights trying to  find a way out.  I hope the god you don’t follow me on twitter but if you do I’ve been banging the drum about fixing Mairbek Tismumov’s Visa issues so he can fight in the US.  I was amazed when Feirrera just walk that guy down and beat him up for the three downs. Tismumov did catch Ferrera but he was able to come back and keep up the pressure. The guy has chin on him.  I’ve got $15 on Ferrera

(+115) Andre Fili vs (-130) Sodiq Yusuff

First off the last thing I want to do is bet against a Nigerian from the DMV.  He has looked good, he is athletic but I think the betting lines should be somewhere around even or with Fili having the slight edge.  It really comes down to experience. Fili looked real good in his last fight and it looks if he has finally put it all together.  I’ve got $10 on Fili