The Money Bet #6

I’ve been watching this Showtime Documentary Action it follows the professional and amateur sports gamblers leading up to the biggest day in sports betting, the Super Bowl.   It’s a four part series and I highly encourage all sports fans to watch it.  Despite the fact that, I am a huge fan of sports betting I wouldn’t ever want to be a professional gambler because that kind of level of risk is just way to much for me.  If I was that kind of risk taker I would left the federal government for the private sector or I would have taken a job overseas in Iraq or Afghanistan for the hazard pay.  I’m not that kind of dude, If would liken myself to anyone it would be the sole woman on the show, Kelly Stewart, who isn’t a professional gambler but a sports handicapper.  I’d rather become a talking head going over stats, betting lines and predications.  Given that I’m truly a hobbyist I have to aggregate my own data.  FightMetric want’s $15,000 dollars for their data sets and that money would be better spent on a patio for the backyard or repairs to our sun room.  If I had the time I would like to get the stats on fighters making their Octagon debut and as a betting favorite.  

Ivan Shtyrkov (-175)                                                                                       Devin Clark (+155)

          15-0-1                                                                                                                  9-3

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

The quality of an opponent is really the gauge of were an MMA fighter is at skill wise and not knowing those fighters the MMA promotion is also indicative.  I bring that up because I’m picking against a 15-0-1 fighter who looks so jacked I’m surprised USADA hasn’t cancelled this fight yet.  He is a Russian who has fought primarily under Russian Cage Fighting Championship promotion.  In terms of Russian MMA promotions the top tier would be M-1 Global, Fight Nights Global and then ACA.  Russian Cage Fighting Championship is your local promotion that doesn’t have a TV deal.  I would compare them to Titan FC and that’s generous.  Though this guy might look impressive those muscles aren’t really suited for fighting.   I’m watching his fight were he got his first blemish of a draw and he has some serious cardio issues that he has to fix.  Granted the man is very explosive in the opening rounds but he has a tendency to gas.  His wrestling is suspect as well.  I’m picking his opponent Devin Clark he is a collegiate wrestler and though he doesn’t have the upper body muscles that Ivan has Devin Clark probably has thickest thighs in the Light Heavyweight division.  I think Clark is going to be able to put Ivan against the cage and wear him out for a finish in rounds 2 and 3. 

I’m placing a $30 bet on this one at +155 were I could win $46.50 giving me a total bankroll of $134