The Money Bet #5

The Money Bet #5

This post I’m going to be breaking down two fights.  I’ve selected Marlon Vera/Frankie Saenz and Jordan Espinosa/Eric Shelton.  I’m doing things a little bit different as I decided to pick a slight favorite this time.  Mainly because I’m picking a considerable underdog this time with Jordan Espinosa who is making his Octagon debut. Though I’m making “fun” bets I need to hedge those bets.  So yeah, making your octagon debut is something I like to avoid.  “Octagon Jitters” are a real thing but really there are some guys out there padding their records.  So I like to go on Sherdog and start scrolling through the records of their opponents.  A lot of the time those 10-0, 13-1 type fighters are fighting guys who are 5-7 and 8-12. 

Jordan Espinosa isn’t really unfamiliar with the Octagon as he has two fights at the former TUF gym for Dana’s Tuesday Night Contender Series.  In both cases he was very dominate, in Season 1 he scored a first round anaconda choke in the opening minutes and in the second fight he was able to secure a 3^rd round TKO in last few seconds. So for those of you who are not familiar with the DWTCS is basically a shot for all those regional prospects to impress Dana White to get a UFC contract.  So it’s not even about winning, its about winning in spectacular fashion.  The finishing rate is like 88.8% which is INSANE!!.  I believe this environment creates unique set of circumstances that don’t allow for true judge of a fighter’s ability.   Since The Money Bet is supposed to be all about the numbers I went back through all of Season 2 and the Brazil season to see how many fighters won their debut after they got the call to fight.

Results
Won Debut	17
Lost Debut	16
Total	33

*Note – I did not include Marina Rodquez Draw or Greg Hardy’s DQ Loss

The Probability and the odds are pretty much even.  Though I will say this if I were to go back and do the numbers over again and separate the fighters who had a short notice fight for their debut and look at if they won there second fight I think you’ll see a higher win ratio but I’ll have to dive into those numbers at a later time.  Also I have to create a baseline of UFC debut fighters who aren’t coming off TUF or the DWTCS.  I’m going to guess it’s the same but I’ll take closer look at those numbers later as well. 

Jordan Espinosa (+130)                                                           Eric Shelton (+150)

FightMetric does have stats for Espinosa which I really haven’t seen when I’m looking up fighters who have fought on DWCTS but apparently they are posting those stats now.   I’m not going to do a comparative analysis just due to the caliber of fighters I’ve seen Eric Shelton face the comparison is not justifiable.  I’m picking Jordan because he uses a lot of movement to setup his shots. He is fast and explosive but the only negative take a ways I saw was that since he is very movement based and explosive he get’s tired towards the later rounds. 

I’m putting $5 on him at +130 yes just $5, so when I first looked at the line it was at +170/-210 at the value I would laid down more but not at those odds I currently have.  I haven’t really talked about line movement in this blog. For those of you who don’t know, the earlier you put a bet down the better. Bookies establish the betting lines and they can change from underdog or favorite as the action comes in.  Once you place your bet, you are locked into those odds.  As the action comes in the bookies adjust the betting lines.  Even though I’m doing “fun” bets I’m not considering my bet placed until I put pen to paper and write up my post.  I had originally decided to do my post on Moffett/Mitchel but I got mixed up and thought that Moffett was the underdog.  I scraped that post.  Yeah, I’m not that confident about this pick.  That’s why I’m only betting $5

Marlon Vera (-150)                                                                                             Frankie Saenz (+130)

                                                                                                                                                                                   

                                                                                                                                                                       

From statistical analysis, Marlon Vera has more Knockdowns in his fights compared to Frankie.  He also has a better ground game and he is dangerous off his back if Frankie wants to take it to the ground.  I’m picking against Frankie mainly because I think he is whining down his career.  Saenz is 38 going on 39, his two fight win streak isn’t much of win streak because his Mehab fight was a highway robbery and his last fight was against  Henry Brinoes who finished his UFC career 1-4 and was mainly booked in fights because he blocked the majority of the punches that came towards him with his face and threw nothing but haymakers.  I’m putting down $20 on this so at +150 I would win $13.33. 

Those are the picks prelims start at 5pm on ESPN+ Main Card start at 8pm on ESPN+  The Shelton/Espinsoa is the first fight on the card so I will mostly likely being ignoring my friends at a BBQ around that time.