The Money Bet #3

The Money Bet

I did not breakdown the last card because I couldn’t find a pick that was worthy.   I’m not really just trying to put content out for content sake. I’ve actually stopped trying to get hits on this blog by reposting my blog link on MMA Fan pages.  Being accurate in my predictions is what I’m really trying to achieve. Even though, these are “fun” bets, I’m treating this blog likes it’s my actual money being put down.  I’m basically trying to prove that my methodology of research and analysis is viable approach to betting.  I’m a huge fan of this sport but I’ve found that writing out my analysis is the only way to shed any bias that I have as a fan.

Johnny Walker (-130)                    Misha Cirkunov (+110)

               16-3                                                     14-4

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          

Predictive measures of a fighters winning are based on three areas Knockdowns, Strike output and takedowns. My pick for this fight is Misha Cirkunov.

Grappling	Misha Cirkunov	Johnny Walker
Takedowns Average/15 min.	4.53	0.87
Takedown Accuracy	58%	100%
Takedown Defense	71%	100%
Submission Average/15 min.	2.3	2.6

So lets talk about his takedown defense yes it’s a 100% but that is because he has fought two strikers who haven’t gone for takedowns. You miss a 100% of the shots you don’t take.  (It transcends sports)  His takedown defense is very suspect. So, FightMetric keeps stats for all of the UFC fights but apparently they don’t keep stats for Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender’s Series.  Johnny Walker was on the Brazilian version of this show which you can currently watch on FightPass. He won a clear, dominant decision against Hernique Da Silva.  What I learned from this fight is Walker gasses easily, needs to work on his top control and his takedown defense needs some work.  That 100% is about to drop because Hernique Da Silva was able to land multiple takedowns and that’s coming from a striker with the following UFC stats:

• TD Avg.: 0.25
• TD Acc.: 14%
• TD Def.: 22%
• Sub. Avg.: 0.2

These aren’t the stats of a fighter with D1 or Olympic pedigree So I believe the judo player with BJJ black belt has the ability to pull away with the win.  

Three Keys to Victory

·       Setup the takedowns – He can’t shoot in their naked, he risks getting countered

·       Stay out of the Clinch – Walker has nasty knees and elbows

·       Take him into deep water – Drag Walker down and wear him out, he has a lot of first round KOs.

So we are at $137.50 for my bankroll at the moment I’m going to take my “winnings” from the last bet and put it on this one.  I’m actually really confident about this one so let’s just make it a round number and bet $40 on this fight.  $40 at +110 is $44 for a total of $181.50 if Misha comes away with the win .  My prediction Cirkunov 1st RD decision.