Money Bet #2

The Money Bet

Scott Holtzman (-170)                      Nik Lentz (+150)

        12-2                                                         31-9-2A

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          

Ok another addition of “The Money Bet” we are 0-0-1(No Contest) due to an actual No Contest from UFC 234 with Robert Whittaker pulling out the day of the fight due to a hernia.  Hopefully this blog post isn’t the kiss of death and this fight happens.

This week’s pick is for “The Carny” a previous UFC staple at 145lbs has gone back to 155lbs for his last five fights.  I’m picking “The Carny” over “Hot Sauce” because of Lentz’s wrestling and Holtzman hasn’t really fought anybody.  Holtzman has 5 wins out of 7 fights and only one of the fighters he has beat is still in the UFC.   Lentz doesn’t have the prettiest record but the competition he has lost to is well above the level of talent that Holtzman has fought. 

Holtzman is still a developing fighter, he has wild style that I think will leave him open for Lentz to press him against the fence for a takedown or be able time a takedown during a striking exchange.  I feel that Holtzman will try to keep this fight standing the entire time.  Anyway, let’s take a look at the numbers.

	Scott Holtzman	Nik Lentz
STRIKING
Strikes Landed per Min. (SLpM)	4.47	3.42
Striking Accuracy	52%	49%
Strikes Absorbed per Min. (SApM)	3.22	3.00
Defense	56%	49%
GRAPPLING
Takedowns Average/15 min.	2.81	3.50
Takedown Accuracy	59%	35%
Takedown Defense	60%	44%
Submission Average/15 min.	0.3	1.3

I have to give the striking advantage to Holtzman.  Holtzman has the ability keep up an aggressive pace in the stand up.  Neither of these guys are knockout artists but I was impressed with Lentz stand up game in the Maynard fight.  Lentz was able to rock Maynard twice in that before putting him away with ground and pound. Though I’m giving Holtzman the edge in the striking department, which is only due to his previous output stats. I still think Lentz is very competent in striking.  I was really impressed in his loss to David Teymur.  Lentz really made Teymur use a lot footwork to slightly edge out each round.  Just take a look at the strike outputs for this fight. 

FIGHTER	KD	SIG. STR.	SIG. STR. %	TOTAL STR.	TD
Nik Lentz David Teymur	0 0	61 of 144 67 of 187	42% 35%	63 of 146 72 of 192	0 of 5 0 of 0

Just a difference of 6 significant strikes.  I think people would agree that Teymur would have the striking advantage in that fight but clearly that fight was closely contested.  I’m not saying that Lentz is an elite striker but he is more than just a wrestler.  I just think Holtzman’s style leaves him open.  I wouldn’t be surprised if Lentz gets a submission in this matchup. Look for Lentz to change levels to get a takedown or counter a kick. 

Well if you haven’t seen my The Money Bet #1 I’m making “fun” bets and I’m going to be tracking these bets as way to see if my analysis is worth implementing once DC rolls out its sports gambling in the fall.  Because my first Money Bet didn’t happen I still got my $100 bankroll. I’m going bet $25 on Lentz which would be payout of $37.50. Check back for my addition of Sunday Morning Analyst to see how the bout turned out and my thoughts on my pick.