Money Bet #1

The Money Bet

I have decided to go away from going in depth on my DraftKings picks.  Mainly because DraftKings doesn’t really release its games until Tuesday or Wednesday not giving me ample time to research and breakdown six matchups.  In the Money Bet segment I will choose one or two fights where I feel like the odds makers are undervaluing or overvaluing the odds in a fight where it’s worth putting down some scratch on a fight.

Robert Whittaker (-235)                                                                          Kelvin Gastelum (+195)                         20-4                                                                                                             15-3

          

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       
I look at those odds and I’m surprised Whittaker is such a strong favorite.  Kelvin is a live dog in this fight I was trying to understand this margin.  It has to be his Chris Weidman loss. Because standing with Kelvin Gastelum isn’t a good idea and Chris Weidman really put the blueprint in beating Kelvin which is basically take him down, make him tired to nullify his striking.  That’s a game plan that Weidman could uniquely implement just based off his sheer size and grappling ability.  Advantages that Whittaker does not posses. 

What I I do expect from Whittaker is to keep the fight on the outside and keep that jab pumping in Kelvin’s face.  Combinations and circling to keep his back off the cage.  Its pretty much what he has down in his last four fights.  For the most part I think this going to be striking match so let’s look at the numbers. 

Striking	Robert Whittaker	Kelvin Gastelum
Strikes Landed per Min. (SLpM)	4.82	3.86
Striking Accuracy	40%	43%
Strikes Absorbed per Min. (SApM)	3.65	2.87
Defense	61%	61%

Yeah so I don’t really care about these stats. Robert Whittaker is more active per fight and Kelvin gets hit less.   The real stat that I care about is that Kelvin has dropped last five opponents while Robert has only dropped his last 2 of 5 opponents. The other issue is that Kelvin can wrestle and he is great in the scramble position. To where he is either getting off the bottom or getting on top.  And since Robert Whittaker isn’t shooting for take downs.  My pick is Gastelum. I believe Kelvin's wrestling will play a big role in this fight.  I actually see this fight going all 5 rounds with Kelvin getting the decision. 

Also I will be tracking my "bets" for each one of those posts, although fictional at this time.  Washington DC is in the works to fast track their sports gambling legislation in order to gain ground before Maryland and other nearby states that have casinos.  This fictional bankroll will track how I would have done if the legislation was enacted today.  

I'm giving myself a $100 bankroll with my first bet will be in the amount of $30 on Kelvin.  With odds at +195 my winnings would $58.50.  Look out for my next piece called Sunday Morning Analyst for analysis to see how my prediction compared to what had actually happened.