The Money Bet #3

The Money Bet

I did not breakdown the last card because I couldn’t find a pick that was worthy.   I’m not really just trying to put content out for content sake. I’ve actually stopped trying to get hits on this blog by reposting my blog link on MMA Fan pages.  Being accurate in my predictions is what I’m really trying to achieve. Even though, these are “fun” bets, I’m treating this blog likes it’s my actual money being put down.  I’m basically trying to prove that my methodology of research and analysis is viable approach to betting.  I’m a huge fan of this sport but I’ve found that writing out my analysis is the only way to shed any bias that I have as a fan.

Johnny Walker (-130)                    Misha Cirkunov (+110)

               16-3                                                     14-4

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          

Predictive measures of a fighters winning are based on three areas Knockdowns, Strike output and takedowns. My pick for this fight is Misha Cirkunov.

Grappling	Misha Cirkunov	Johnny Walker
Takedowns Average/15 min.	4.53	0.87
Takedown Accuracy	58%	100%
Takedown Defense	71%	100%
Submission Average/15 min.	2.3	2.6

So lets talk about his takedown defense yes it’s a 100% but that is because he has fought two strikers who haven’t gone for takedowns. You miss a 100% of the shots you don’t take.  (It transcends sports)  His takedown defense is very suspect. So, FightMetric keeps stats for all of the UFC fights but apparently they don’t keep stats for Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender’s Series.  Johnny Walker was on the Brazilian version of this show which you can currently watch on FightPass. He won a clear, dominant decision against Hernique Da Silva.  What I learned from this fight is Walker gasses easily, needs to work on his top control and his takedown defense needs some work.  That 100% is about to drop because Hernique Da Silva was able to land multiple takedowns and that’s coming from a striker with the following UFC stats:

• TD Avg.: 0.25
• TD Acc.: 14%
• TD Def.: 22%
• Sub. Avg.: 0.2

These aren’t the stats of a fighter with D1 or Olympic pedigree So I believe the judo player with BJJ black belt has the ability to pull away with the win.  

Three Keys to Victory

·       Setup the takedowns – He can’t shoot in their naked, he risks getting countered

·       Stay out of the Clinch – Walker has nasty knees and elbows

·       Take him into deep water – Drag Walker down and wear him out, he has a lot of first round KOs.

So we are at $137.50 for my bankroll at the moment I’m going to take my “winnings” from the last bet and put it on this one.  I’m actually really confident about this one so let’s just make it a round number and bet $40 on this fight.  $40 at +110 is $44 for a total of $181.50 if Misha comes away with the win .  My prediction Cirkunov 1st RD decision.

Sunday Morning Analyst

Sunday Monday Morning Analyst

UFC on ESPN 1 was a pretty good card.   Lets talking about the pacing of these new fight cards they are great.  This one went on for a while but it’s nothing like the pacing there was on Fox Sports One cards.  The main event was disappointing I hope Cain isn’t seriously injured.  Let’s get Kron Gracie someone with phenomenal take down defense.  Also, I would like to thank Vicente Luque and Bryan Barabriana for putting on a WAR!!!

Money Bet Breakdown

I won!  I made a “fun” bet of $25 a conservative one but there are a lot of UFC fights.  I’m trying to build a bankroll one fight at a time.  

Date	Event & Matchup	Odds	Bet	Outcome	Winnings	Bankroll
2/10/2019	UFC 234: Kelvin Gastelum vs Robert Whittaker	(+195) Gastelum	$30	Fight Cancelled	$0.00	$100
2/19/2019	UFC onf ESPN 1: Nik Lentz vs Scott Holtzman	(+150) Lentz	$25	Lentz Decision	$37.50	$137.50

The fight pretty much happened the way I thought.  Nik Lentz was about to secure takedowns in rounds 1 and 2.  By round 3 it was visible that Lentz was getting tired and was not able to keep up with the striking output that Holtzman was putting on.  Holtzman was able to defend the takedowns in the last round.  Highlights that were interesting were the high kicks that Lentz was able to land in the fight.  Lentz’s fatiguing in round 3.  And them elbows that Lentz was clearly wearing after his failed takedown attempts in round 3.  All in all I was happy with this pick and Lentz was competent in the striking department long enough to secure takedowns against the cage, which was my prediction.

Money Bet #2

The Money Bet

Scott Holtzman (-170)                      Nik Lentz (+150)

        12-2                                                         31-9-2A

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          

Ok another addition of “The Money Bet” we are 0-0-1(No Contest) due to an actual No Contest from UFC 234 with Robert Whittaker pulling out the day of the fight due to a hernia.  Hopefully this blog post isn’t the kiss of death and this fight happens.

This week’s pick is for “The Carny” a previous UFC staple at 145lbs has gone back to 155lbs for his last five fights.  I’m picking “The Carny” over “Hot Sauce” because of Lentz’s wrestling and Holtzman hasn’t really fought anybody.  Holtzman has 5 wins out of 7 fights and only one of the fighters he has beat is still in the UFC.   Lentz doesn’t have the prettiest record but the competition he has lost to is well above the level of talent that Holtzman has fought. 

Holtzman is still a developing fighter, he has wild style that I think will leave him open for Lentz to press him against the fence for a takedown or be able time a takedown during a striking exchange.  I feel that Holtzman will try to keep this fight standing the entire time.  Anyway, let’s take a look at the numbers.

	Scott Holtzman	Nik Lentz
STRIKING
Strikes Landed per Min. (SLpM)	4.47	3.42
Striking Accuracy	52%	49%
Strikes Absorbed per Min. (SApM)	3.22	3.00
Defense	56%	49%
GRAPPLING
Takedowns Average/15 min.	2.81	3.50
Takedown Accuracy	59%	35%
Takedown Defense	60%	44%
Submission Average/15 min.	0.3	1.3

I have to give the striking advantage to Holtzman.  Holtzman has the ability keep up an aggressive pace in the stand up.  Neither of these guys are knockout artists but I was impressed with Lentz stand up game in the Maynard fight.  Lentz was able to rock Maynard twice in that before putting him away with ground and pound. Though I’m giving Holtzman the edge in the striking department, which is only due to his previous output stats. I still think Lentz is very competent in striking.  I was really impressed in his loss to David Teymur.  Lentz really made Teymur use a lot footwork to slightly edge out each round.  Just take a look at the strike outputs for this fight. 

FIGHTER	KD	SIG. STR.	SIG. STR. %	TOTAL STR.	TD
Nik Lentz David Teymur	0 0	61 of 144 67 of 187	42% 35%	63 of 146 72 of 192	0 of 5 0 of 0

Just a difference of 6 significant strikes.  I think people would agree that Teymur would have the striking advantage in that fight but clearly that fight was closely contested.  I’m not saying that Lentz is an elite striker but he is more than just a wrestler.  I just think Holtzman’s style leaves him open.  I wouldn’t be surprised if Lentz gets a submission in this matchup. Look for Lentz to change levels to get a takedown or counter a kick. 

Well if you haven’t seen my The Money Bet #1 I’m making “fun” bets and I’m going to be tracking these bets as way to see if my analysis is worth implementing once DC rolls out its sports gambling in the fall.  Because my first Money Bet didn’t happen I still got my $100 bankroll. I’m going bet $25 on Lentz which would be payout of $37.50. Check back for my addition of Sunday Morning Analyst to see how the bout turned out and my thoughts on my pick.

Sunday Morning Analyst

Sunday Morning Analyst

Well my breakdown was for not, the fight never happened.  Saturday afternoon Robert Whittaker was rushed to the hospital.  Apparently he suffered a hernia and was rushed into surgery.  Hopefully Robert makes a full recovery.  With that fight scrapped its time to look at the card next week.

Money Bet #1

The Money Bet

I have decided to go away from going in depth on my DraftKings picks.  Mainly because DraftKings doesn’t really release its games until Tuesday or Wednesday not giving me ample time to research and breakdown six matchups.  In the Money Bet segment I will choose one or two fights where I feel like the odds makers are undervaluing or overvaluing the odds in a fight where it’s worth putting down some scratch on a fight.

Robert Whittaker (-235)                                                                          Kelvin Gastelum (+195)                         20-4                                                                                                             15-3

          

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       
I look at those odds and I’m surprised Whittaker is such a strong favorite.  Kelvin is a live dog in this fight I was trying to understand this margin.  It has to be his Chris Weidman loss. Because standing with Kelvin Gastelum isn’t a good idea and Chris Weidman really put the blueprint in beating Kelvin which is basically take him down, make him tired to nullify his striking.  That’s a game plan that Weidman could uniquely implement just based off his sheer size and grappling ability.  Advantages that Whittaker does not posses. 

What I I do expect from Whittaker is to keep the fight on the outside and keep that jab pumping in Kelvin’s face.  Combinations and circling to keep his back off the cage.  Its pretty much what he has down in his last four fights.  For the most part I think this going to be striking match so let’s look at the numbers. 

Striking	Robert Whittaker	Kelvin Gastelum
Strikes Landed per Min. (SLpM)	4.82	3.86
Striking Accuracy	40%	43%
Strikes Absorbed per Min. (SApM)	3.65	2.87
Defense	61%	61%

Yeah so I don’t really care about these stats. Robert Whittaker is more active per fight and Kelvin gets hit less.   The real stat that I care about is that Kelvin has dropped last five opponents while Robert has only dropped his last 2 of 5 opponents. The other issue is that Kelvin can wrestle and he is great in the scramble position. To where he is either getting off the bottom or getting on top.  And since Robert Whittaker isn’t shooting for take downs.  My pick is Gastelum. I believe Kelvin's wrestling will play a big role in this fight.  I actually see this fight going all 5 rounds with Kelvin getting the decision. 

Also I will be tracking my "bets" for each one of those posts, although fictional at this time.  Washington DC is in the works to fast track their sports gambling legislation in order to gain ground before Maryland and other nearby states that have casinos.  This fictional bankroll will track how I would have done if the legislation was enacted today.  

I'm giving myself a $100 bankroll with my first bet will be in the amount of $30 on Kelvin.  With odds at +195 my winnings would $58.50.  Look out for my next piece called Sunday Morning Analyst for analysis to see how my prediction compared to what had actually happened.