UFC 232: Jones vs Gustafsson 2

Weight class				Method
Light Heavyweight	Jon Jones	vs.	Alexander Gustafsson	Jones** Dec
Women's Featherweight	Cris Cyborg (c)	vs.	Amanda Nunes	Cyborg 4rd TKO
Welterweight	Carlos Condit	vs.	Michael Chiesa	Chiesa Sub 2nd Rd
Light Heavyweight	Ilir Latifi	vs.	Corey Anderson	Anderson Dec
Featherweight	Chad Mendes	vs.	Alexander Volkanovski	Volkanovski Dec
Heavyweight	Andrei Arlovski	vs.	Walt Harris	Arlovski Dec
Women's Featherweight	Cat Zingano	vs.	Megan Anderson	Zingano Dec
Bantamweight	Douglas Silva de Andrade	vs.	Petr Yan	Yan 1st KO
Lightweight	BJ Penn	vs.	Ryan Hall	Penn TKO 3rd*
Bantamweight	Brian Kelleher	vs.	Montel Jackson	Kelleher Dec
Bantamweight	Andre Ewell	vs.	Nathaniel Wood	Wood Dec
Middleweight	Uriah Hall	vs.	Bevon Lewis	Hall Dec
Welterweight	Curtis Millender	vs.	Siyar Bahadurzada	Bahadurzada Dec

*This is purely a Fandom pick he is probably going to lose.  I just love BJ Penn this pick is from the heart

** For the Record I hate Jon Jones in any movie Jon Jones would be the bad guy Gustafsson would lose but Jones will win this fight and later be stripped for either popping for a different substance or beating his wife.  

My DraftKings Picks

Nathaniel Wood (-115) vs Andre Ewell (+105)

Ewell made his Octagon debut against Renan Baro in September with a split decision win.   One of the biggest takeaways from that fight was his ability to get off the bottom when he was takendown. I think a big reason why we saw Andre on the ground that much in the fight is because Renan Baro tasted his power and didn’t want anymore of that.  Yeah Nathaniel Wood also made his Octagon debut this past Summer against Johnny Eduardo with a 2nd round submission.  The thing that I was impressed with his chin.  I think that that is going to carry him through this fight.  I was impressed with his ability in a scramble to secure a choke  The key

To this fight is going to be cardio.  I think Nathaniel’s ability to take Ewell’s power in the early rounds is going to pay off. My Pick is Nathaniel Wood by Decision.

Petr Yan (-295) vs Douglas Silva De Andrade (+265)

Petr Yan is prospect from Russia with a ten and one record.  Great striker probably would have KO’ed his last opponent but his had was made   out of granite.  The thing about his opponent Douglas Silva De Andrade that he is very wild.Very wild.  Petr Yan is a lot better at finding his range and landing his shots.  While Douglas Silva De Andrade does a lot of spinning shit on the outside to dry off his opponent.  Petr Yan 1st round KO. 

Cat Zingano (-145)  vs Megan Anderson (+135)

Cat Zingano is going to out wrestle Megan Anderson. She might even finish on the top via ground in pound or submission.  Relentless throws and takedowns.  Cat Zingano via decision.

Holly Holm out grappled her I really only needed the first sentence.  

Chad Mendes (-140) vs Alexander Volkanovski (+130)

So Chad Mendes looked great in his comeback fight against Myles Jury.  It seem like the two years did him well. His opponent Volkanovski has been on a tear and this run reminds me of Chad Mendes second run a title shot.  He has been very impressive in every outing constant pressure high volume strikes on the feet and the ground.   So I’m putting these stats up here to   show how Volkanovski’s output:

	Chad Mendes	Alexander Volkanovski
Strikes Landed per Min. (SLpM)	2.76	6.09
Striking Accuracy	49%	63%
Strikes Absorbed per Min. (SApM)	2.14	2.55
Defense	68%	63%

If you are looking for an upset pick this one of mine.  The striking differential is striking but you have to factor in all the tough fights that Mendes had McGregor, Edgar and Aldo twice.  Look for Vokanovski to keep a higher pace. I’m picking Volkanovski via decision.

Ilir Latifi (-135) vs Corey Anderson (+125)

So i was going to pick Ilir Latifi but then i looked at their stats:

STRIKING (SIGNIFICANT STRIKES)	Ilir Latifi	Corey Anderson
Strikes Landed per Min. (SLpM)	2.37	4.55
Striking Accuracy	42%	47%
Strikes Absorbed per Min. (SApM)	2.65	2.20
Defense	52%	59%
GRAPPLING
Takedowns Average/15 min.	2.33	5.48
Takedown Accuracy	37%	52%
Takedown Defense	100%	75%
Submission Average/15 min.	0.7	0.0

From the time i started looking into the stats of this sport Strikes per min, Takedowns per min, and Knockdowns have been the best predictors for this sport.  Corey Anderson has a lead in both those areas.  Also that 100% takedown defense is 100% because he hasn’t fought any wrestlers other than Ryan Bader who didn’t need the takedowns because he was winning on feet and KO’ed him out.  Corey Anderson via Decision.

Cris Cyborg (-240) vs Amanda Nunes (+220)

So Cyborg is a monster.  That was going to be my pick but let’s check out the stats.  For the hell of it.  I’m still picking Cyborg. As a reminder the highest predictors for winning a fight are tthe rate Strikes, Takedowns and knockdowns.

STRIKING (SIGNIFICANT STRIKES)	Cris Cyborg	Amanda Nunes
Strikes Landed per Min. (SLpM)	7.02	4.55
Striking Accuracy	52%	51%
Strikes Absorbed per Min. (SApM)	1.79	2.88
Defense	70%	56%
GRAPPLING
Takedowns Average/15 min.	0.85	1.82
Takedown Accuracy	62%	40%
Takedown Defense	91%	79%
Submission Average/15 min.	0.3	0.6

Amanda Nunes is going to get tired.  Cyborg is going to be in her face. Pressing Amanda backwards, and it's hard to land effective strikes going backwards. I don’t see Amanda winning this and I think its cute that fans think that Amanda’s has got a chance. Cyborg TKO 4rd at the latest.