Before I get into the breakdown I don’t think this card has the buzz it should. I don’t know if its the lack of a media tour or the casual fans knowledge of Khabib. Or has the hardcore fan base adjusted their expectation for main events pulling out last minute. Something is missing here, despite what Dana is saying on how this fight is trending. I don’t think this fight is going to do Diaz McGregor numbers. I think maybe because I’m comparing this fight to Mayweather/McGregor fight that was more show than sport. People who don’t watch either sport watched it because that’s what everyone was talking about. That was huge. But this event is really taking the best of the division against each other. The clash of styles is really where the story line lies when you talk about this fight. A classic Striker vs Grappler contest. I’m just really excited because I don’t know what’s going to happen. Ok, Let’s break this down.
I was going to break this fight down with tons of stats and numbers but those things really don’t mean anything because both of these fighters are great at what they do. Khabid has great GNP and control from the top. Conor has an excellent ability to measure range and distance to land that accurate left hand. I don’t know who is going to win. I can see Conor sleeping Khabib with a left hand just as easily as I can see Khabib draining Conor with top control and punches to get a finish. However, I’m leaning towards Conor. When I say leaning I’m giving him a 51% chance of winning the fight. Watching Khabib’s fights I don’t see him doing what he did with Edson Barboza because there is no way he can close the distance on Conor without getting clipped. I think the key strategy for this fight is how well can Khabib execute that ankle pick takedown. The other aspect of the game is what does Conor have off his back when it does go to the ground. Khabib has said it multiple times in his interviews leading up to the fight. His game plan is simple “take him to the ground” “make him tired” “Smash”. Getting up from the bottom is exhausting and it will tax Conor’s gas tank. Which is questionable. I have yet to see anyone attack Khabib from the bottom position. I don’t know what’s going to happen. I’m super excited. I’m giving Conor the slight edge but I don’t know but I can’t wait. I am super pumped for this fight.
