UFC Fight Night 131: Rivera vs Moraes

Weightclass				Outcome
Bantamweight	Jimmie Rivera	vs.	Marlon Moraes	Rivera Dec
Lightweight	Gregor Gillespie	vs.	Vinc Pichel	Pichel 1st kO
Heavyweight	Walt Harris	vs.	Daniel Spitz	Harris 1st KO
Welterweight	Jake Ellenberger	vs.	Ben Saunders	Ellenberger 2nd TKO
Featherweight	Julio Arce	vs.	Daniel Teymur	Teymur 1st KO
Light Heavyweight	Gian Villante	vs.	Sam Alvey	Gian Villante
Women's Flyweight	Sijara Eubanks	vs.	Lauren Murphy	Eubanks 1st Sub
Lightweight	Nik Lentz	vs.	David Teymur	David Dec
Welterweight	Belal Muhammad	vs.	Chance Rencountre	Renountre Dec
Lightweight	Desmond Green	vs.	Gleison Tibau	Green Dec
Women's Strawweight	Jessica Aguilar	vs.	Jodie Esquibel	Esquibel Dec
Bantamweight	Johnny Eduardo	vs.	Nathaniel Wood	Wood 2nd TKO
Flyweight	Jarred Brooks	vs.	Jose Torres	Torres 1st KO

Sijara Eubanks (-170) vs Lauren Murphy (+150)

Eubanks has a strong BJJ background and she is going against Lauren Murphy who also has a grappling heavy style.  Eubanks seems to be able to keep the fight where she wants it. Part of her story line in the TUF house was her difficulty making weight which we saw at the finale. I did watch the weigh-ins and she weighed in relatively early and didn’t need a towel. She looked lean and mean. I’m giving the grappling advantage to Eubanks though either of them are known for their striking. Sijara did land a head kick KO in the TUF house.  So I’m going with Eubanks I think she is the stronger fighter and can dictate where the fight goes. 

Jimmie Rivera (-115) vs Marlon Moraes (-105)

I don’t know which fighter to pick but I gotta go with the busier fighter who has 100% take down defense.  

	Jimmie Rivera	Marlon Moraes
Strikes Landed per Min. (SLpM)	4.55	3.09
Striking Accuracy	41%	32%
Strikes Absorbed per Min. (SApM)	3.42	2.86
Defense	64%	64%

Technically this is a pick’em fight but Marlon has a tendency to fade in the later rounds.  He is huge bantamweight and cuts a lot of weight. I expect that Jimmie Rivera will be able to keep up a higher pace in the later rounds.  

Gian Villante (+120) vs Sam Alvey (-140)

So Sam Alvey is taking his second fight at Light Heavyweight after beating unknown Marcin Prachnio who made his Octagon debut by showing off that he can run at Sam Alvey with his hands down and chin up to see if Sam Alvey actually hits hard. He does.  However, I doubt that will be the strategy for Gian Villante or any other fighter. This isn’t Sam Alvey’s weight class he needs to go back down. Gian is a legitimate Light Heavyweight and if he contends on sitting on the outside waiting to counter.  He is going to get ate up with kicks. Look for Gian Villante to be the bigger stronger fighter with better footwork.

Jake Ellenberger (-190) vs Ben Saunders (+165)

Jake Ellenberger and Ben Saunders are two fighters whose ceilings have clearly been established as gatekeepers.   Ben Saunders strengths are his reach and BJJ. Jake Ellenberger strengths are his power and wrestling. Jake can clearly stay off the ground and has the striking advantage.   I’m picking Ellenberger because he has the power and striking advantage and enough wrestling to stay out of Saunders guard. 

Daniel Teymur (+175) vs Julio Arce (-210)

I had to pick an upset pick and this is my upset pick.  He made his octagon debut at a higher weight, on short notice.  He did fantastic in the first round but taking the fight on short notice he started to fade after rocking his opponent and going for the finish.  He is very dynamic and has a ton of weapons to use in the stand up game. Julio Arce likes to keep it standing as well so this might be fight of the night.  Julio Arce has a tendency to counter-strike and Daniel Teymur aggressiveness mightl help win him the decision if he doesn’t get the KO. 

David Teymur (-290) vs Nik Lentz (+245)

Basic Striker vs Grappler match David Teymur being the superior grappler and Nik Lentz with the superior grappling.   The stat i need to pick Teymur over Lentz is below 

Grappling	Nik Lentz	David Teymur
Takedowns Average/15 min.	3.68	1.40
Takedown Accuracy	36%	33%
Takedown Defense	44%	75%
Submission Average/15 min.	1.4	0.0

If Nik Lentz gets Teymur down he won’t be able to keep him down.  David beats him 10 out of 10 on the feet. I’m going all Teymur for this card.

UFC Fight Night 130 Thompson vs Till

Weight class				Method
Welterweight	Stephen Thompson	vs.	Darren Till	Till 1TKO
Welterweight	Neil Magny	vs.	Craig White	Neil Magny 2nd TKO
Featherweight	Arnold Allen	vs.	Mads Burnell	Arnold Allen Dec
Featherweight	Jason Knight	vs.	Makwan Amirkhani	Makwan Amirkani
Bantamweight	Davey Grant	vs.	Manny Bermudez
Middleweight	Eric Spicely	vs.	Darren Stewart	Spicely 1st RD Sub
Welterweight	Cláudio Silva	vs.	Nordine Taleb	Taleb Dec
Middleweight	Dan Kelly	vs.	Tom Breese	Tom Breese 2nd KO
Welterweight	Brad Scott	vs.	Carlo Pedersoli Jr.	Carlo Pedersoli 1st KO
Women's Flyweight	Gillian Robertson	vs.	Molly McCann	McCann 3rd TKO
Middleweight	Elias Theodorou	vs.	Trevor Smith	Theodorou Dec
Women's Bantamweight	Gina Mazany	vs.	Lina Länsberg	Gina Mazany Dec

Tom Breese (-310) vs Daniel Kelly (+255)

Daniel Kelly is on a two fight losing skid, it seems as the 40 year old olympian is losing the race against father time.  On other hand Tom Breese is moving up in weight class as another fighter who has figured out that being 6’3 and depleting yourself down to 170 when you walk around 205 isn’t optimal.  Having only one loss coming via split decision against Sean Strickland.

Darren Till (-105) vs Stephen Thompson (-115)

I wouldn’t bet on this fight, Darren Till is good, I’m not denying that but this is a big fight for him.  This is a big step up above Cowboy Cerrone. Stephen Thompson is fantastic at keeping the distance and attacking in space.   Darren Till is also an excellent striker with more of a Muay Thai stance, leaning heavy on that lead leg. I’m picking Darren Till on my DraftKings Card for two reasons: he is fighting in the main event, more rounds to finish or rack up points.  Second, he is priced at a point in the game that it's worthwhile to put him on your card. Would I put money on Darren Till “No” but he is worth an upset pick on your Draftkings card. Darren’s game plan will be eat Two to give One. I think he has the striking ability to finish the fight.  So let’s see how this fight plays out. It’s going to be an exciting fight.

Carlo Pedersoli (-160) vs Bradley Scott (+140)

I’ve seen absolutely no film on Carlo Pedersoli and he is taking this fight on short notice but I’m still picking him to beat Bradley Scott.  Scott is usually reserved as a regional fighter and his main weapon is being super tough and in shape. Bradley is also making his welterweight debut so let’s see how this cut goes.   Carlo has been fighting on the regional scene he is 10-1 finishing 4 out of his last 5 with his last decision win coming against former UFC fighter Nicolas Dalby. Bradley hasn’t beat anyone who is still in the UFC.  Dylan Andrews, Scott Askham, and Michael Kuiper have all been cut. Bradley Scott is a gatekeeper of the european fighters on the regional scene and Carlo Pedersoil seems to be legitimate prospect so I think Carlo can come away with the win.  

Makwan Amirkhani (+135)  vs Jason Knight (-155)

Hick Diaz, Yes!!! Great to see Jason Knight in the cage again.  However, before i rant about how fun he is to watch. I’m going with Makwan Amirkhani basically because of takedowns. Yes, Jason Knight has great rubber guard but I haven’t seen him land a triangle yet or an omoplata. Makwan isn’t interesting with brawling with Knight.  This fight is going to be won via top control and Makwan has the wrestling to do so.

	Jason Knight	Makwan Amirkhani
Takedowns Average/15 min.	1.77	4.24
Takedown Accuracy	32%	45%
Takedown Defense	52%	50%
Submission Average/15 min.	2.1	2.4

Gina Mazany (-105)  vs Lina Lansberg (-115)

Lina Lansberg is a Muay Thai fighter who has switched over to MMA.  She likes the clinch and predominantly presses her opponent against the cage.  Which is perfect for Gina Mazany who wants the takedowns. Once again takedowns for the win.  

	Gina Mazany	Lina Lansberg
Takedowns Average/15 min.	4.62	0.50
Takedown Accuracy	71%	12%
Takedown Defense	25%	40%
Submission Average/15 min.	0.0	0.0

Molly McCann (-245) vs Gillian Robertson (+205)

Molly McCann is coming from Cage Warriors with a recent win in February to gain the inaugural Cage Warriors Flyweight belt.  Her path to victory was sprawling and brawling. She stuffed each one of her opponents shot and then finished the fight on her feet.  Gillian Robertson isn't much of a striker and her only path to victory is via submission. Based off what I’ve seen of both of them Molly McCann for the win sprawl n brawl for the win.