Weight Class
|
Winner
|
|||
Featherweight
|
vs.
|
Stephens TKO 3rd
|
||
Women's Flyweight
|
vs.
|
Clark Dec
|
||
Welterweight
|
vs.
|
Usman
2nd RD TKO |
||
Featherweight
|
vs.
|
Elkins 3rd
TKO
|
||
Lightweight
|
vs.
|
Krause Dec
|
||
Lightweight
|
Matt Frevola
|
vs.
|
Frevola 3rd Sub
|
|
Welterweight
|
vs.
|
Alves Dec
|
||
Women's Flyweight
|
Kalindra Faria
|
vs.
|
Eye 1st
KO
|
|
Women's Bantamweight
|
Talita Bernardo
|
vs.
|
Tlita Dec
|
|
Women's Strawweight
|
vs.
|
Taylor Dec
|
||
Featherweight
|
Mike Santiago
|
vs.
|
Mads Burnell
|
Sanitago 2nd
TKO
|
Bantamweight
|
vs.
|
Kang 1st KO
|
My DraftKings Card Breakdown
Jeremy Stephens (+150) vs Do Hoo Choi (-170)
I’ve taken a huge hiatus on my statistics course but I’m back at it again. I’m going to be relying on the numbers more often. However, I can’t do that with this fight because the data from Choi’s previous 4 fights are skewing things. Currently I’m learning about linear correlation and removing the outliers that skew correlative data which would distort the relationship between variables. I really have to remove Do Hoo Choi’s first three wins in the UFC because the level of talent is skewing the analysis of this Fight. Do Hoo Choi has 3 first 1st Round KO’s over talent that is no longer in the UFC. His last fight was Fight of the Year against Killer Cub Swanson. Not because it was a back and forth slobberknocker mostly because we were amazed that Do Hoo Choi was still standing after the barrage from Swanson. Choi is an amazing Can Crusher but Jeremy Stephens is no can. Stephens doesn’t have the most stellar record at (26-14) but he has fought 6 UFC/Strikeforce Champions and he has beat half of them. He has fought top level talent and shown he can hang in with the best. Cho’s first test showed he can take a beating. Stephens hits harder than Cub I’m going Stephens 3rd TKO.
Darren Elkins (+135) vs Michael Johnson (-150)
The betting line is shrinking for good reason on this fight. First of all i have divulge that I’m a huge Darren Elkins fan. I pick him all of the time in EA UFC 2 because everyone just picks Conor and I just time takedowns and frustrate people into quitting. Second, his fight against Mirsad Bektic, watch that one. I’m picking Elkins for his relentless pace and his takedowns. Elkins latest move to team Alpha he increased in his ability to setup his takedowns. My prediction is that this fight is going to be a three round grueling fight where Darren Elkins’s game is to either take Michael Johnson down or wear him down against the cage dragging him into deep waters.
Striking Significant Strikes
|
Darren Elkins
|
Michael Johnson
|
Strikes Landed per Min. (SLpM)
|
3.16
|
4.06
|
Striking Accuracy
|
37%
|
36%
|
Strikes Absorbed per Min. (SApM)
|
2.27
|
4.09
|
Defense
|
57%
|
56%
|
Grappling
| ||
Takedowns Average/15 min.
|
2.79
|
0.63
|
Takedown Accuracy
|
36%
|
50%
|
Takedown Defense
|
50%
|
79%
|
Submission Average/15 min.
|
1.5
|
0.1
|
Activity has a strong correlation wins that means strikes landed, takedowns and ground control are the factors i use in my analysis., Michael Johnson will be the busier fighter on the feet and he will have the striking advantage. Michael Johnson is your classic wrestler boxer preferring to keep things on his feet. He has great footwork and likes to keep things at range that’s when he is at his best. He has a tendency to brawl, he did it in the Nate Diaz fight, he did it with Justin Gathje and he lost the fights because of it. He has a tendency to get lured into this when he gets pressured. Guess what? That’s Darren Elkins game, forward pressure. Then there is the this is Michael’s first fight at featherweight. I don’t think his recent loses justify the move. I don’t think he will look good at all at this weight class and he might make the trip back up after this fight.
Jessica Eye (-120) vs (100) Kalindra Faria
A lot of other fighters have been cut well before reaching a four fight losing streak but Jessica Eye is still in the UFC and I didn’t hesitate in picking her to win. Jessica Eye has awesome footwrk, good boxing and so-so takedown defense. Kalindra I can’t really give to much information about her. I’ve watched a couple of her fights I didn’t see anything that stood out, she is a tough fighter but that’s it. Kalindra record lacks wins over notable talent. Jessica Eye came into the UFC bantamweight division as undersized flyweight and has hung in with the best. Kalindra has been fighting nobodies and in her octagon debut she got destroyed in 3 minutes mounting zero offense. I think despite Eye’s record knowledgeable fans are taking advantage of the opening line which started Eye (+105) Faria (-145) and the line continue to expand. I think we might see Eye’s first finish in the Octagon this weekend. If she can pick her apart it will be in the 3rd. Expect a lot of footwork and combinations from the outside by Eye.
Matt Frevola (-235) vs Marco Polo Reyes (+195)
My pick is Frevola he is undefeated fighter with a forward pressure style and a ground game. Reyes likes the stand up game. He is a Mexican fighter and sometimes implements that Mexican style of fighting (forward pressure, chin tucked and just throwing bombs). This is going to be a very good fight maybe even fight of night as both fighters are aggressive however takedowns and Revola submission game is going to be the key in winning this fight. Frevola 3rd Sub.. I had data on these fighters but Frevola has only had one fight under the UFC banner on Dana White’s Contender Series. The level of talent on that show is speculative. He looked good and this fight will be a test to see if you can continue his undefeated streak.
James Krause (-160) vs Alex White (+140)
Both of these guys are middle of the road fighters, James Krause does have a lot more experience. He recently competed on The Ultimate Fighter: Redemption season. He made it to the semi-finals losing to the overall winner of that season, Jesse Taylor. Luckily, Alex “The Spartan” White isn’t a ground n pound specialist. Ok, White guys, enough with the Spartan, you saw 300 we got it. Wait this dude doesn’t even have a fucking beard. We got enough Spartan’s in the UFC. There is now a moratorium on Spartan, that goes for Pitbull as well. Anyway, Alex White is coming off a finish of Mitch Clarke. Either of these fighter possess a definitive advantage, however I do believe that Krause has a bit of an edge experience wise and in the striking department.
STRIKING (SIGNIFICANT STRIKES)
|
James Krause
|
Alex White
|
Strikes Landed per Min. (SLpM)
|
4.65
|
3.90
|
Striking Accuracy
|
45%
|
39%
|
Strikes Absorbed per Min. (SApM)
|
4.24
|
2.84
|
Defense
|
62%
|
66%
|
GRAPPLING
| ||
Takedowns Average/15 min.
|
1.00
|
0.88
|
Takedown Accuracy
|
17%
|
40%
|
Takedown Defense
|
50%
|
68%
|
Submission Average/15 min.
|
0.6
|
0.2
|
I’m picking Krause based on the numbers since he seems to be the busier fighter. He does have a tendency to lean back and leave his chin exposed when avoiding strikes hopefully he has worked on this bad habit. The keys to this fight is Krause’s right kick to the body. Alex White is a southpaw and based on that stance that body shot is always going to be there. Hopefully he can land enough body kicks to setup up his other strikes to get a finish.
Kang Kyung Ho (-290) vs Guido Canetti (+260)
Below are my upset picks in order of probability (High to Low)
Thiago Alves
Talita Bernardo
Daniele Taylor
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