Saturday, January 20, 2018

Fight Picks and Draft Kings Breakdown UFC 220: Miocic vs Ngannou






Weight Class
Outcome
Heavyweight
vs.
3rd TKO Stipe
Light Heavyweight
vs.
2nd Sub Cormier
Featherweight
Calvin Kattar
vs.
1st KO Burgos
Light Heavyweight
vs.
Villante Decision
Bantamweight
vs.
Rob Decision
Featherweight
vs.
Brandon Davis
Bochnik Decision
Welterweight
vs.
2nd KO Abdul Razak
Flyweight
vs.
Dustin Decision
Featherweight
Dan Ige
vs.
Julio Arce
Ige Decision
Featherweight
vs.
Barzola Decision
Lightweight
vs.
Makhchev 2nd Sub
Stipe Miocic (-175) vs Francis Ngannou (+165)




I think this match-up is similar to the Anthony Johnson vs Daniel Cormier.  Anthony Johnson was just dropping people in scary fashion and we quickly found that this was MMA and then there was this thing called a ground game. We haven’t seen much Ngannou’s ground game.  Has been taken down before but he hasn’t been held down for long.  We all know he has devastating one punch power. I honestly thought he killed Overeem when he landed that “Uppercut from Hell”.




But Stipe has hands too, Man, I understand the betting odds and I’m not even mad about Ngannou being the favorite.  I think Stipe’s collegiate wrestling comes into play even if he fails to land an initial takedown he forces Ngannou to wear his arms out.  I’m leaning towards Stipe but to ne honest i’m not that confident about this pick. Also let me be clear that based on my belief that this matchup is extremely close Stipe’s value on Draftkings is a most pick.  If you are looking for an underdog pick.  Stipe is that pick on your DraftKings Card.  I’m excited to see what happens whoever wins will be the “Baddest Man on the Planet”.  


Rob Font (-105) vs Thomas Almeida (-115)




Yeah so I think the betting odds are on the nose.  I don’t know who is going to win but somebody is going to get knocked out.  So I’m just going to let the numbers pick.  With both sides having striking and power. I’m letting defense decide.



Significant Strikes
Thomas Almedia
Rob Font
Strikes Landed per Min. (SLpM)
6.00
5.23
Striking Accuracy
48%
46%
Strikes Absorbed per Min. (SApM)
4.53
3.80
Defense
63%
64%


Dustin Ortiz (+115) vs Alexandre Pantoja (-135)




I can’t really rely on the stats for this fight because Pantonja has only had a two fights in the UFC.  Therefore I can't rely on statistics for this fight.  I’m going with Dustin Ortiz because he has relatively good takedown defense and this is what this fight hinges on.  Pantoja whose only goals is to get his opponents to the ground hasn’t really been tested yet. He beat retired Neil Serry and won a split decision bout against a very green Eric Shelton.  Ortiz has fought against 5 fighters who have fought for the UFC Flyweight title and has 11 fights in the UFC.  Alexandre Pantoja was on the The Ultimate Fighter: Tournament of Champions season.  Where he made it to the semi finals losing against Hiromasa Ogikubo.  Hiro showed that stuffing the takedown was the key to beating Pantonja. Despite Ortiz being a slight underdog.  I think he’s experience and wrestling will give him the nod.



Shane Burgos (-200) vs Calvin Kattar (+185)


I was really impressed with Calvin Kattar in his Octagon debut.  He made his debut on two weeks notice and beat Andrie Fili.  Calvin took away Andre Fili’s kicking game with forward pressure by making Fili fight off his heels.  Then we have Shane Burgos.  He has got great head movement and punching power.  He knows his range and knows how to roll punches in order to land his counters. Burgos seems to be improving, I think he is going to make quick work of Calvin Kattar for this fight.  


Gian Villante (-140) vs Francimar Barroso (=130)




Gian Villante isn't the greatest Light Heavyweight but either is Barroso.  Villante’s weakness is fighters with good wrestling.  Barroso takedowns are mostly off the cage he doesn’t shoot for doubles in the middle of the Octagon.  At range Gian is more dangerous I gotta give him the striking advantage.  Also Barros fades in the later rounds.  You gotta pick the busier fighter when it comes to striking.


STRIKING (SIGNIFICANT STRIKES)
Gian Villante
Francimar Barroso
Strikes Landed per Min. (SLpM)
4.15
2.45
Striking Accuracy
45%
51%
Strikes Absorbed per Min. (SApM)
5.49
2.79
Defense
62%
57%


Daniel Cormier (-325) vs Volkan Oezdemir (+295)













Daniel Cormier has three weakness: Cake, Fried Chicken,  and Jon Jones.  Oezdemir isn’t either of those things.  



Daniel Cormier is going to takedown Oezdemir down and that’s the beginning of the end.  



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