Fight Picks and Draft Kings Breakdown UFC 220: Miocic vs Ngannou

Weight Class				Outcome
Heavyweight	Stipe Miocic (c)	vs.	Francis Ngannou	3rd TKO Stipe
Light Heavyweight	Daniel Cormier (c)	vs.	Volkan Oezdemir	2nd Sub Cormier
Featherweight	Calvin Kattar	vs.	Shane Burgos	1st KO Burgos
Light Heavyweight	Gian Villante	vs.	Francimar Barroso	Villante Decision
Bantamweight	Thomas Almeida	vs.	Rob Font	Rob Decision
Featherweight	Kyle Bochniak	vs.	Brandon Davis	Bochnik Decision
Welterweight	Abdul Razak Alhassan	vs.	Sabah Homasi	2nd KO Abdul Razak
Flyweight	Dustin Ortiz	vs.	Alexandre Pantoja	Dustin Decision
Featherweight	Dan Ige	vs.	Julio Arce	Ige Decision
Featherweight	Enrique Barzola	vs.	Matt Bessette	Barzola Decision
Lightweight	Islam Makhachev	vs.	Gleison Tibau	Makhchev 2nd Sub

Stipe Miocic (-175) vs Francis Ngannou (+165)

I think this match-up is similar to the Anthony Johnson vs Daniel Cormier.  Anthony Johnson was just dropping people in scary fashion and we quickly found that this was MMA and then there was this thing called a ground game. We haven’t seen much Ngannou’s ground game.  Has been taken down before but he hasn’t been held down for long.  We all know he has devastating one punch power. I honestly thought he killed Overeem when he landed that “Uppercut from Hell”.

But Stipe has hands too, Man, I understand the betting odds and I’m not even mad about Ngannou being the favorite.  I think Stipe’s collegiate wrestling comes into play even if he fails to land an initial takedown he forces Ngannou to wear his arms out.  I’m leaning towards Stipe but to ne honest i’m not that confident about this pick. Also let me be clear that based on my belief that this matchup is extremely close Stipe’s value on Draftkings is a most pick.  If you are looking for an underdog pick.  Stipe is that pick on your DraftKings Card.  I’m excited to see what happens whoever wins will be the “Baddest Man on the Planet”.  

Rob Font (-105) vs Thomas Almeida (-115)

Yeah so I think the betting odds are on the nose.  I don’t know who is going to win but somebody is going to get knocked out.  So I’m just going to let the numbers pick.  With both sides having striking and power. I’m letting defense decide.

Significant Strikes	Thomas Almedia	Rob Font
Strikes Landed per Min. (SLpM)	6.00	5.23
Striking Accuracy	48%	46%
Strikes Absorbed per Min. (SApM)	4.53	3.80
Defense	63%	64%

Dustin Ortiz (+115) vs Alexandre Pantoja (-135)

I can’t really rely on the stats for this fight because Pantonja has only had a two fights in the UFC.  Therefore I can't rely on statistics for this fight.  I’m going with Dustin Ortiz because he has relatively good takedown defense and this is what this fight hinges on.  Pantoja whose only goals is to get his opponents to the ground hasn’t really been tested yet. He beat retired Neil Serry and won a split decision bout against a very green Eric Shelton.  Ortiz has fought against 5 fighters who have fought for the UFC Flyweight title and has 11 fights in the UFC.  Alexandre Pantoja was on the The Ultimate Fighter: Tournament of Champions season.  Where he made it to the semi finals losing against Hiromasa Ogikubo.  Hiro showed that stuffing the takedown was the key to beating Pantonja. Despite Ortiz being a slight underdog.  I think he’s experience and wrestling will give him the nod.

Shane Burgos (-200) vs Calvin Kattar (+185)

I was really impressed with Calvin Kattar in his Octagon debut.  He made his debut on two weeks notice and beat Andrie Fili.  Calvin took away Andre Fili’s kicking game with forward pressure by making Fili fight off his heels.  Then we have Shane Burgos.  He has got great head movement and punching power.  He knows his range and knows how to roll punches in order to land his counters. Burgos seems to be improving, I think he is going to make quick work of Calvin Kattar for this fight.  

Gian Villante (-140) vs Francimar Barroso (=130)

Gian Villante isn't the greatest Light Heavyweight but either is Barroso.  Villante’s weakness is fighters with good wrestling.  Barroso takedowns are mostly off the cage he doesn’t shoot for doubles in the middle of the Octagon.  At range Gian is more dangerous I gotta give him the striking advantage.  Also Barros fades in the later rounds.  You gotta pick the busier fighter when it comes to striking.

STRIKING (SIGNIFICANT STRIKES)	Gian Villante	Francimar Barroso
Strikes Landed per Min. (SLpM)	4.15	2.45
Striking Accuracy	45%	51%
Strikes Absorbed per Min. (SApM)	5.49	2.79
Defense	62%	57%

Daniel Cormier (-325) vs Volkan Oezdemir (+295)

Daniel Cormier has three weakness: Cake, Fried Chicken,  and Jon Jones.  Oezdemir isn’t either of those things.  

Daniel Cormier is going to takedown Oezdemir down and that’s the beginning of the end.  

UFC Fight Night Picks and DraftKings Card Breakdown: Stephens vs. Choi

Weight Class				Winner
Featherweight	Jeremy Stephens	vs.	Doo Ho Choi	Stephens TKO 3rd
Middleweight	Uriah Hall	vs.	Vitor Belfort	Hall 2nd TKO
Women's Flyweight	Paige VanZant	vs.	Jessica Rose-Clark	Clark Dec
Welterweight	Kamaru Usman	vs.	Emil Weber Meek	Usman 2nd RD TKO
Featherweight	Darren Elkins	vs.	Michael Johnson	Elkins 3rd TKO
Lightweight	James Krause	vs.	Alex White	Krause Dec
Lightweight	Matt Frevola	vs.	Marco Polo Reyes	Frevola 3rd Sub
Welterweight	Thiago Alves	vs.	Zak Cummings	Alves Dec
Women's Flyweight	Kalindra Faria	vs.	Jessica Eye	Eye 1st KO
Women's Bantamweight	Talita Bernardo	vs.	Irene Aldana	Tlita Dec
Women's Strawweight	Danielle Taylor	vs.	JJ Aldrich	Taylor Dec
Featherweight	Mike Santiago	vs.	Mads Burnell	Sanitago 2nd TKO
Bantamweight	Kyung Ho Kang	vs.	Guido Cannetti	Kang 1st KO

My DraftKings Card Breakdown

Jeremy Stephens (+150) vs Do Hoo Choi (-170)

I’ve taken a huge hiatus on my statistics course but I’m back at it again.   I’m going to be relying on the numbers more often. However, I can’t do that with this fight because the data from Choi’s previous 4 fights are skewing things.  Currently I’m learning about linear correlation and removing the outliers that skew correlative data which would distort the relationship between variables.  I really have to remove Do Hoo Choi’s first three wins in the UFC because the level of talent is skewing the analysis of this Fight.  Do Hoo Choi has 3 first 1st Round KO’s over talent that is no longer in the UFC.  His last fight was Fight of the Year against Killer Cub Swanson.  Not because it was a back and forth slobberknocker mostly because we were amazed that Do Hoo Choi was still standing after the barrage from Swanson.  Choi is an amazing Can Crusher but Jeremy Stephens is no can.  Stephens doesn’t have the most stellar record at (26-14) but he has fought 6 UFC/Strikeforce Champions and he has beat half of them.  He has fought top level talent and shown he can hang in with the best. Cho’s first test showed he can take a beating.  Stephens hits harder than Cub I’m going Stephens 3rd TKO.

Darren Elkins (+135) vs Michael Johnson (-150)

The betting line is shrinking for good reason on this fight.  First of all i have divulge that I’m a huge Darren Elkins fan. I pick him all of the time in EA UFC 2 because everyone just picks Conor and I just time takedowns and frustrate people into quitting. Second, his fight against Mirsad Bektic, watch that one. I’m picking Elkins for his relentless pace and his takedowns. Elkins latest move to team Alpha he increased in his ability to setup his takedowns. My prediction is that this fight is going to be a three round grueling  fight where Darren Elkins’s game is to either take Michael Johnson down or wear him down against the cage dragging him into deep waters.  

Striking Significant Strikes	Darren Elkins	Michael Johnson
Strikes Landed per Min. (SLpM)	3.16	4.06
Striking Accuracy	37%	36%
Strikes Absorbed per Min. (SApM)	2.27	4.09
Defense	57%	56%
Grappling
Takedowns Average/15 min.	2.79	0.63
Takedown Accuracy	36%	50%
Takedown Defense	50%	79%
Submission Average/15 min.	1.5	0.1

Activity has a strong correlation wins that means strikes landed, takedowns and ground control are the factors i use in my analysis., Michael Johnson will be the busier fighter on the feet and he will have the striking advantage. Michael Johnson is your classic wrestler boxer preferring to keep things on his feet.  He has great footwork and likes to keep things at range that’s when he is at his best.  He has a tendency to brawl, he did it in the Nate Diaz fight, he did it with Justin Gathje and he lost the fights because of it. He has a tendency to get lured into this when he gets pressured.  Guess what? That’s Darren Elkins game, forward pressure. Then there is the this is Michael’s first fight at featherweight.   I don’t think his recent loses justify the move.  I don’t think he will look good at all at this weight class and he might make the trip back up after this fight.

Jessica Eye (-120) vs (100) Kalindra Faria

A lot of other fighters have been cut well before reaching a four fight losing streak but Jessica Eye is still in the UFC and I didn’t hesitate in picking her to win.  Jessica  Eye has awesome footwrk, good boxing and so-so takedown defense.   Kalindra I can’t really give to much information about her. I’ve watched a couple of her fights I didn’t see anything that stood out, she is a tough fighter but that’s it.  Kalindra record lacks wins over notable talent.  Jessica Eye came into the UFC bantamweight division as undersized flyweight and has hung in with the best.  Kalindra has been fighting nobodies and in her octagon debut she got destroyed in 3 minutes mounting zero offense.  I think despite Eye’s record knowledgeable fans are taking advantage of the opening line which started Eye (+105) Faria (-145) and the line continue to expand.  I think we might see Eye’s first finish in the Octagon this weekend.  If she can pick her apart it will be in the 3rd.  Expect a lot of footwork and combinations from the outside by Eye.  

Matt Frevola (-235) vs Marco Polo Reyes (+195)

My pick is Frevola he is undefeated fighter with a forward pressure style and a  ground game.  Reyes likes the stand up game. He is a Mexican fighter and sometimes implements that Mexican style of fighting (forward pressure, chin tucked and just throwing bombs).  This is going to be a very good fight maybe even fight of night as both fighters are aggressive however takedowns and Revola submission game is going to be the key in winning this fight. Frevola 3rd Sub.. I had data on these fighters but Frevola has only had one fight under the UFC banner on Dana White’s Contender Series.  The level of talent on that show is speculative. He looked good and this fight will be a test to see if you can continue his undefeated streak.

James Krause (-160) vs Alex White (+140)

Both of these guys are middle of the road fighters, James Krause does have a lot more experience. He recently competed on The Ultimate Fighter: Redemption season.  He made it to the semi-finals losing to the overall winner of that season, Jesse Taylor.  Luckily, Alex “The Spartan”  White isn’t a ground n pound specialist.  Ok, White guys, enough with the Spartan, you saw 300 we got it.  Wait this dude doesn’t even have a fucking beard.  We got enough Spartan’s in the UFC. There is now a moratorium on Spartan, that goes for Pitbull as well. Anyway, Alex White is coming off a finish of Mitch Clarke.  Either of these fighter possess a definitive advantage, however I do believe that Krause has a bit of an edge experience wise and in the striking department.

STRIKING (SIGNIFICANT STRIKES)	James Krause	Alex White
Strikes Landed per Min. (SLpM)	4.65	3.90
Striking Accuracy	45%	39%
Strikes Absorbed per Min. (SApM)	4.24	2.84
Defense	62%	66%
GRAPPLING
Takedowns Average/15 min.	1.00	0.88
Takedown Accuracy	17%	40%
Takedown Defense	50%	68%
Submission Average/15 min.	0.6	0.2

I’m picking Krause based on the numbers since he seems to be the busier fighter.  He does have a tendency to lean back and leave his chin exposed  when avoiding strikes hopefully he has worked on this bad habit. The keys to this fight is Krause’s right kick to the body.  Alex White is a southpaw and based on that stance that body shot is always going to be there.  Hopefully he can land enough body kicks to setup up his other strikes to get a finish.  

Uriah Hall (-325) vs Vitor Belfort (=265)

Update:  Uriah Hall did not make it the weigh-ins.  Vitor will have to delay his retirement fight.  


Kang Kyung Ho (-290) vs Guido Canetti (+260)

Kang has superior grappling for this matchup especially on the ground.  Both fighters have been out for considerable amount of time Kang had to complete his mandatory Korean Military service, while Canetti got popped for a performance enhancing drug during an out of competition test.  With that in mind I'm going with Kyung Ho.  

Below are my upset picks in order of probability (High to Low)

Thiago Alves

Talita Bernardo

Daniele Taylor