UFC 216 My Picks and Draftkings Breakdown

UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee

Weight Class	Fighter	Vs.	Fighter	Outcome
Lightweight	Tony Ferguson	vs.	Kevin Lee	Ferguson 4th RD Sub
Flyweight	Demetrious Johnson (c)	vs.	Ray Borg	Johnson 2nd KO
Heavyweight	Fabrício Werdum	vs.	Derrick Lewis	Werdum 2nd Sub
Lightweight	Beneil Dariush	vs.	Evan Dunham	Dariush 1st KO
Featherweight	Tom Duquesnoy	vs.	Cody Stamann	Stanmann Dec
Women’s Straweight	Mara Romero Borella	Vs.	Kalindra Faria	Faria Dec
Lightweight	Will Brooks	vs.	Nik Lentz	Brooks Dec
Lightweight	Bobby Green	vs.	Lando Vannata	Vannata 1st KO
Women's Strawweight	Pearl Gonzalez	vs.	Poliana Botelho	Botelho 3rd TKO
Heavyweight	Walt Harris	vs.	Mark Godbeer	Walt Harris 1st KO
Flyweight	John Moraga	vs.	Magomed Bibulatov	Bibulatov Dec
Middleweight	Thales Leites	vs.	Brad Tavares	Tavares Dec
Flyweight	Matt Schnell	vs.	Marco Beltrán	Beltran KO 1st

(-135) Poliana Botelhovs vs (+115) Pearl Gonzelz

This is one of the better value picks on the DraftKings card.  Pearl Gonzaelez is listed as the DK favorite despite Vegas having Poliana as there odds favorite.  Poliana has finished her last three fights by TKO.  In Pearl's debut against Cynthia Cavillio its hard to see her strengths due to Cavilio's dominance on the ground. Not much was gained other than she started to fade in the third. The reason I'm picking Poliana is because she keeps coming forward and throws heat, she reminds me of Jessica Andrade.  I think her pressure game will overwhelm Pearl and Poliana will get the stoppage.  

(+145) Cody Stamann vs (-165) Tom Duquesony

Both of these guys won their Octagon debuts. Tom Duquesony looked dominant in his debut, he is a dangerous striker, he is even more dangerous in the clinch when his opponent is against the cage.  I'm picking Cody because he is a good value pick as an underdog based on the Vegas Odds. He being priced as 2.5 to 1 favorite on Draftkings but Vegas has him as 1.5 to 1.  You gotta have an upset pick and this is my upset pick.  He's got a great double leg and that's what I'm counting on.  If Cody can stay off the cage he can win this fight. In his debut he landed every takedown he attempted.  He took that fight on a week's notice, so I'm expecting a lot more output this time around since has a full camp.  With Tom Duquesony wild style and a need to put on a show.  I think Cody can grind out a win with some lay n pray.

(-170) Brad Tavares vs (+150) Thales Leites

Brad Tavares has great takedown defense. His current FightMetric Stats have him with  75% takedown defense which is pretty good. He was in the 90 percentile but that was taken away from Olympic Silver Medalist and Title Contender Yoel Romero.  I'm pretty sure he can stifle the BJJ expert Thales Leites's ground game.  I’m positive that Brad will come away with the win since based on his takedown defense.  The downside of Brad Tavares is that he goes to decisions.  He has one finish off of 15-18 journeyman Phil Baroni.  I don’t see Brad racking up the points but he is a safe pick and priced accordingly.

(-310) Walt Harris vs Mark Godbeer (+255)

Walt Harris by KO first round.  Walt Harris is the stronger, faster Heavyweight.  We’ve also seen improvement in Walt which isn’t common in the heavyweight division where most fighters rely on just their KO power rather than developing their game. Mark Godbeer's only win in the Octagon is against short notice fighter Daniel Spitz who was obviously gassed by a lack of conditioning for the fight.  So I’m going with Harris, he is improving and you gotta pick heavyweights because they have a higher percentage of finishes.

(-255) Fabricio Werdum vs (+215) Derrick Lewis

Despite the KO’s on Lewis resume, The Black Beast hasn’t really fought a fighter the caliber of Fabricio Werdum.  I think technically Werdum’s striking is better and on the ground its no question.  If this fight goes to the ground the fight is over.  Fabricio is really undervalued as Heavyweight on this Draftkings card.  I think its Lewis knockouts in the UFC that have Derrick Lewis with such a close line in the DK card. However, Lewis has shown trouble with fighters at a higher level. Derrick Lewis is going to have to show something more than haymakers to win this fight but I haven’t seen it.  I also think Fabricio is pissed off on his loss to Allister Overeem.  He had that fight finished but he decided to lay in Overeem’s guard and allow Overeem to ride out a decision win rather than stepping back, letting the dazed Overeem up and finishing the fight.  He’s got something to prove, he wants that next title shot. 

(-220) Tony Ferguson vs (+180) Kevin Lee

This is just going to be a really good fight.  Kevin Lee is really good wrestler-boxer who has been really improving on both sides of his game.  Kevin has got a strong top game and I was really impressed with his ability to take Michael Chiesa back in his last fight.  On the other hadnd we have Tony Ferguson who has also been improving. His fight against Edson Barboza really showed how that unorthodox style can really stifle someone’s game.  Let’s just go to the stats for this one

	Tony Ferguson	Kevin Lee
Strikes Landed Per Min	5.23	3.60
Strikes Absorbed Per Min	3.43	2.99
Defense	65%	53%
Takedowns Average	.71	3.48
Takedown Defense	81%	73%
Submission Average	1.5	1.5

So Tony is a little bit busier in the striking department which always wins over the judges.  But than Kevin shots for more takedowns but Tony’s takedown defense is at 81%.  It’s a close fight but Tony has been in a 5 round fight before and I haven’t seen him get tired.  Tony is also an excellent submission specialist, he is going to be dangerous off his back.  So I have to give Tony the nod on this one.  I’m predicting a submission from Tony in the 4^th. 

Sleepers

Bobby Green -  He is on three fight losing streak but I think Lando Vannata is still riding off his KO of the Year over John Makdessi.  Going over their stats the fight is closer than you think it's more of a pick'em  Bobby Green is worth the upset pick.