Friday, September 23, 2016

Cyborg doesn't deserve her own weight division





I keep hearing why won’t the UFC just make a 145 division for Cyborg, like they did for Ronda.  I don’t know where to start in my argument in why this is a bad idea. Well, the first point I’d like to make is that there aren’t a lot of 145 female fighters period.  I’m not talking about women who have taken a couple of fights at 145 and then dropped down to 135.  I’m talking about women who have exclusively fought at 145 and 145 only.  Just take a look at Cyborg’s last 10 opponents.  Out of the 10 only four of them are true 145ers.  Now out of four only two are active fighters. Though I would like to point that Gina was in talks about fighting at 135 but her movie career precluded that jump.   

Last 10 Opponents
True 145ers
Active 145ers
Leslie Smith
Daria Ibragimova
Daria Ibragimova
Daria Ibragimova
Charmaine Tweet
Charmaine Tweet
Faith Van Duin*
Fiona Muxlow
 
Charmaine Tweet
Gina Carano
 
Marloes Coenen
 
 
Fiona Muxlow
 
 
Hirko Yamanaka
 
 
Jan Finney
 
 
Marloes Coenen
 
 
Gina Carano
 
 


*As I wrote this Faith Van Duin former 145 dropped down to the 135 division for Invicta FC 19

As you can see from the tables, what you are left with is not a lot of competition. It’s hard enough for these ladies to get on a fight card. Bellator has sprinkling of WMMA, as well as the rest of the Regional Shows.  Invicta FC being the sole home for WMMA.  Essentially Cyborg has run through all the viable contenders in Invicta FC. Even in Cyborg’s last title defense, Shannon Knapp, Invicta FC president went overseas to book Invicta FC newcomer Daria Ibragimova.  That move right there is evidence enough to show why the UFC can’t sustain a 145 women’s division.  If Shannon Knapp didn’t have a contender on deck in her own promotion and had to get a fighter overseas to take the fight. How do you expect the UFC to sustain an entire division?  How do you think the UFC stood up the 115 pound division.  They basically gutted Invicta FC straweight division, they took the champion and all major contenders, but even after that Shannon Knapp was able to rebuild that division with new talent.  Why, because it’s a deep division. She can’t do that at 145, she’s knows and so does the UFC.


Second reason, Cyborg is not Ronda Rousey. Ronda Rousey is a superstar.  She’s been in Movies, TV Commercials, and on the cover of Sports Illustrated Swimsuit edition and regular issue just because she is a badass fighter. She came out with autobiography and she is still in her twenties. I don’t see Cyborg on Jimmie Kimmel or in Maxium.  Let’s be honest Cyborg has got some hard features, don’t get me wrong, she is physical specimen. I just don’t see her beating Ronda for her spot on the next Maxium shot.  Maybe in a fight but not as a centerfold.

My Third and final reason, I actually think Cyborg can make that weight (135).  We have fighters in the UFC that make those cuts all of the time.  Does anybody remember what Thiago Alves looked like at the height of his steroid use career.
Pre-USADA







Post USADA

 








Look at the guy at 170lbs and he is fighting at UFC 205 at 155 lbs now. Crazy about those photos is that he is still fighting at 170lbs in both pictures. Hey Lorenz Larkin started his career at 205 and is now fighting at 170.  Rashard Evan is making the cut from 205 to 185lbs.  Patrick Cote, Lyoto Machida, Hector Lombard, and Joe Riggs, a lot of these athletes have made the 15lbs drop.  Men and Women’s bodies are completely different I understand that, women tend to hold on to more water and natural have a higher percentage of fat. Yet Cyborg comes in to the fight shredded every time.   She can make that 10 drop; for Christ sake she made 139. She just doesn’t want to lose the part of her that makes her the destructive force that she is.  Whenever she walks into the cage she knows she is the strongest most powerful fighter at that time.  Who would give that up? She knows she walks around at 170lbs, she knows she is coming in around 15lbs heavier than her opponent after they both rehydrate.  That’s a huge advantage, that’s a huge confidence booster. I think she change up her strength and conditioning program to drop some muscle and make 135lbs. But I also think she loses that muscle she loses her confidence and a fighter can’t walk into that cage without confidence.  That’s why she won’t go down.





Friday, September 9, 2016

UFC 203: Fight Picks and Draft Kings Breakdown



Stipe Miocic vs. Alistair Overeem
Miocic 3rd TKO  

Fabrício Werdum vs. Travis Browne
Werdum Decision                                                           

CM Punk vs. Mickey Gall
Gall 1st Sub                                         

Urijah Faber vs. Jimmie Rivera                                                 
Rivera Decision

Jéssica Andrade vs. Joanne Calderwood
JoJo 3rd TKO                                                       

Jessica Eye vs. Bethe Correia
Eye Decision

Nik Lentz vs. Michael McBride
Lentz 3rd                                              

Caio Magalhães vs. Brad Tavares
Brad Tavares 2nd TKO     

CB Dollaway vs. Francimar Barroso
CB decision                                        

Yancy Medeiros vs. Sean Spencer
Yancy Decision                                                 

Drew Dober vs. Jason Gonzalez
Dober 1st KO

My Draft King Card


Nik Lentz vs Brian McBride
What can I tell you about this Brian McBride. Not much can’t find a single fight of his on YouTube.  But what I can tell you is that he is 8-1 losing to Bellator Contender Emmanuel Sanchez.  He has finished his last four fights.  Note that the records of those fighters were 9-5, 5-4, 6-6, and 3-5.  Also he has taking this fight on 9 days notice.  Nik Lentz on the other is a hard nose grinder, a poet, and has gone in there against top 10 opponents numerous times throughout his career.  Don’t let the record fool you, McBride is a Can Crusher fighting on 9 days notice.  Nik Lentz is a proven veteran who has moved up in weight, because he can no longer cut to featherweight so he should bring conditioning to break his opponent who is taking this fight on short notice.  Nik hasn’t gotten a finish in awhile but he has been in a ton of wars.  With a betting line of (-450 Lentz +360 McBride) and Draft King value of $10,200 an extremely cheap buy for a favorite when compared to the Vegas Line.  Nik Lentz is a must pick favorite due to the amount of notice from McBride and the experience of Lentz.  


Brad Taveres vs Caio Magalhes
At some point in this fight Mike Goldberg will call Brad Taveres a fine Hawaii.  I got money on that. I’ve been going back to watch Magalhles and Tavares.  I don’t know how Caio made this far.  Seriously his striking is just wild looping hooks.  There are no jabs, no crosses just alternating haymakers and overhand rights.   He is Brazilian so I’m sure he is black belt in BJJ.  He’s isn’t bad off the ground he seems to find away get on top in scrambles but that’s the only good thing I’ve seen in his game.  Brad Tavares has great takedowns defense and solid skills.   What Brad lacks is a killer instinct, the times he does hurt a guy he doesn’t step up the pressure or go for the finish. He is very measured in his attacks.  Hence why he hasn’t gotten a finish since 2011.  Anyway both fighters are coming off KO loses however I will pick the fighter with better takedown defense and solid fundamentals.  Brad 2nd TKO. He is due.  Brad cost is only $9,800 with Vegas Odds of (-196 Brad + Caio 186) for a little less than a 2 to 1 favorite and still be under $10,000 to wage on your fighter Brad is a solid pick.  


Jessica Eye vs Bethe Correia
So this fight will happen entirely on the feet.  Otherwise, I wouldn’t pick Jessica Eye.  Bethe loves the clinch game, more of a brawler but Jessica Eye is more of a technical boxer.  I’m not confident in this pick really.  I’m just hoping Eye’s footwork well help keep Bethe at range. This is all hope.  I think this fight will end in split decision.  Actually It’s going to be hard to pick a finishes in this card with out spending on all your cash.  But you need winners and I think Jessica’s boxing has more of a chance to win than Bethe.  Eye Split Decision.  I HOPE.







Urjiah Faber vs Jimmie Rivera
Urijah is 37 years old and I’m telling you he is losing a step.  His last couple fights were very close.  The Frankie Saenez fight was close, it was unanimous decision but Frankie had his moments, so did Fransico Rivera before Urijah poked him in the eye and sunk in the choke.  The title fight against Cruz was a complete shutdown.   Jimmie Rivera has very similar skill set of the California Kid.  Jimmie takes it to the ground when he can but mainly keeps it standing.  His most important advantage he has over Faber is speed.  Speed is the first thing to go when you get older.  The power doesn’t go but Faber has never been that kind of fighter. Speed is going to dictate that this fight.  The only downside I’ve seen from Rivera is that speed fades in the 3rd and because of that his footwork isn’t there and he tends to get caught by shots. I’m going Rivera Decision.  So again Vegas Odds have this fight.

 

Stipe Miocic vs Alistair Overeem
So this fight basically comes to aggression. Alistair Overeem has changed the way he fighters after his KO loses of late.  He has become more of a counter puncher.  What you can’t counter is the punch that KO’s you out.  Alistair doesn’t have a chin anymore. Stipe will be first and the fight will be over.  That’s my breakdown. The deciding factor in this fight.  Who lands that big bomb.  Stipe doesn’t have weak chin he traded bombs with Dos Santos and hasn’t been finished since 2012.  Alistair been KO’ed by Travis Bronwne Antonio Silva and Ben Rothwell.  Hence the more measured and setup the kill strike fight mode.  Stipe is going to get the KO.  I mean even if you don’t agree with my assessment. Either fighter needs to be on your fight card if you intend to cash on this event. Let’s just hope you picked the right one. 

Friday, September 2, 2016

UFC Fight Night 93: Arlovski vs. Barnett



Andrei Arlovski vs.  Josh Barnett
ODDS (+130 -150)
Josh Barnett 3rd Sub                                                       

Alexander Gustafsson vs. Jan Błachowicz
ODDS (-675 + 450)
Gustafsson 1st KO                                                           

Ryan Bader vs. Ilir Latifi
ODDS (-210 +175)
Latifi Decision  

Nick Hein vs. Tae Hy(un Bang
ODDS (-275 +225)
Nick Decision (Fight of the Night)                                                           

Jessin Ayari vs.  Jim Wallhead
ODDS (+115 -135)
Wallhead Ddecision                                                      

Peter Sobotta vs. Nicolas Dalby
ODDS (+155 -175)
Dalby 3rd TKO

Taylor Lapilus vs. Leandro Issa   
ODDS (-155 +135)
Issa Sub 3rd                                       

Jarjis Danho vs.Christian Colombo
ODDS (-120 +100)
Colombo TKO 3rd                                                           

Scott Askham vs. Jack Hermansson
ODDS (-110 -110)
Askham Decision                                                            

Rustam Khabilov vs. Leandro Silva
ODDS (-460 +365)
Rustam 2nd TKO                                                                                

Ashlee Evans-Smith vs. Veronica Macedo
ODDS (-270 +230)
Evans Smith 2nd TKO

My Draft King Picks

Nicolas Dalby vs Peter Sabotta 




I didn’t really research much into Sabotta. He is a southpaw likes to throw body kicks.  Doesn’t have the worse Jiu Jitsu but works the jab before setting up the right kick to the body.  What can I tell you about Dalby, well he is one tough son of a bitch.   That basically is his best weapon in a fight just being tough as shit.  You’re not going to stop him, you’re not going to finish him.  The dude will be in your face from the first bell to the last.  He has an impressive record of 14-1-1.  He hasn’t looked great in last two fights but that’s because those fighers were on a different level but luickly Peter Sabotta isn’t on that level so I would have to say this is a safe pick. 

Ashlee Evans smith vs Veronica Macedo



So there is a weird thing about WMMA, there aren’t a lot of feeder orgainzations outside of Invicta FC.   Especially when you are talking about international level WMMA, the level of compeition is also very suspect.  That saying Veronica Macaedo is very pretty and apparently some kind of BJJ Black Belt. Under who I don’t know I think people just forget to ask because they are trying to get her number. Veronica is undersized for weight class.  Her last win was via heel hook, couldn’t find that video but I can tell you this Ashlee Evans Smith has good wrestling.  I don’t see Veronica getting her down to the ground. I see Ashlee pressing the pace and putting Veronica back against the cage and just wearying her down.  Veronica taking this fight on short notice and being way to small for the weight class.  I see Ashlee actually finishing this fight.  I’ve seen Ashlee beat a biological man down in the cage.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=remsCdsLLJM

Rustam Khabilov vs. Leandro Silva



Ok so we got a match-up of Russian Sambo fighter against a Brazilian Muay Thai and BJJ fighter.   Have we’ve seen a fighter out of Brazilian with out a black belt in BJJ.  I don’t know I think their P.E classes in grade school had grappling instead dodge-ball and kickball.   I’m giving the grappling advantage to Rustam.   Being a sambo guy he has great suplexes and throws.  Leandro has decent Muay Thai but is lacking in the foot work area.  He often stands still before throwing his combos or during retreats moves straight back instead of circling off the cage.  This will be an issue in the fight as Rustam will be looking for trips and takedowns off the cage and once it gets to the ground. Rustam has effective ground and pound that will open up Rustam to improve position and finish the fight.   Leandro also doesn’t pressure fighters to much and often doesn’t pick up the pace to the later rounds.  I feel if it came to a decision Rustam would out work Silva. So I got to go with Rustam on this one.  Also at being a 4 to 1 favorite Rustam Is the cheapest favorite on Draft Kings at $10,200 with such a large betting line.

Jim Wallhead vs Jessin Ayari



My favorite picks two guys making their UFC debuts.  Had to do some research on Youtube for this one.  I didn’t see anything from Jessin other than a video of him getting his ass kicked and him beating up Tomato Cans.  Jim I’ve seen losing to one of the recent UFC new comers Danny Roberts. In the fight Wallhead was able to get his opponent down to the ground but caught and KOed in the last couple seconds of the match.  Judging International talent is difficult, just by looking at the strength of competition I have to go with Jim Wallhead in this one.  There are a couple of Wallhead opponents I have recognized.  One of the main reasons why I’m picking him is because Draft kings is going against Vegas odds that has Wallhead as a slight favorite.  I think they are going on Jessin record which I think is mistake basically because he hasn’t fought anyone.   I don’t expect a finish from Wallhead but at a value pick I believe he will be able to get enough takedowns through the course of the fight to get the win.  

Taylor Laprise vs Leandro Issa



Taylor Laprise is more of stand up fighter and Leandro Issa has really sloppy Muay Thai.  Taylor Laprise has the stand up advantage in this fight but I’m counting on Leandro jiu Jitsu game to get him through this fight.  I actually think Leandro can get the submission in this fight.  Leandro has a good enough chin to be able to close the distance and to get his takedown.  Taylor Laprise has had issues with the takedown and I haven’t seen him able to effectively keep his opponents at range long enough to not get taken down.  Leandro will most likely get a submission in the 2nd round.  This is my upset pick of the card.