UFC Fight Night 90 Alvarez vs Dos Anjos - FIGHT PICKS & DRAFT KINGS BREAKDOWN

Ok so I didn’t really make 30 post to count the 30 days till UFC 200 but Hey! I got my fight picks in for tomorrow’s card. 

Rafael dos Anjos vs. Eddie Alvarez

Rafael Dos Anjos Decision

Roy Nelson vs Derrick Lewis

Nelson 2^nd KO                                     

Alan Jouban vs Belal Muhammad

Jouban 2^nd Sub                        

Joseph Duffy vs Mitch Clarke

Duffy 2^nd KO                           

Mike Pyle vs Alberto Mina

Mike Pyle 1^st KO                               

John Makdessi vs Mehdi Baghdad     

John Makdessi Decision                   

Anthony Birchak vs Dileno Lopes **Big Upset**

Dileno Lopes Decision                      

Russell Doane vs Pedro Mnhoz

Munhoz Decision

Felipe Arantes vs Jerrod Sanders *Upset Pick* For this pick Sanders has shown improved submission defense.  I think he can out muscle Arantes to get a decision win. 

Sanders Decision                                

Gilbert Burns vs Łukasz Sajewski

3^rd RD Sub                                          

Marco Beltrán vs Reginaldo Vieira

Vieira 2^nd Sub                                      

Vicente Luque vs Alvaro Herreraoe **** HUGE Upset PICK***** Beware this is more of a GUT pick. I think Alvaro is the stronger fighter, I think he can be more phyiscial in this bout and catch Lupes with a clean shot for a KO.

Alvaro 1^st RD KO

My Draft Kings Picks

Joe Duffy vs Mitch Clarke

Duffy boxing is just superior to Mitch Clark’s striking game. Mitch Clarke is giving up reach in this fight but I doubt he will try to stand too much with Duffy.  He is going to try to take this fight to the mat.    Michael Chiesa was able to catch Clark multiple times in their match and Michael Chiesa isn’t known for his striking.  Duffy has some submission wins under his belt most notably Conor McGregor.  I don’t see Duffy getting caught in submission in this fight nor will Mitch Clark be able to keep Duffy on the ground to the point that Duffy can’t execute his stand up game.  This fight will be the lock of the card.  If you don’t have Duffy on your fight card, pick him up.  

Alan Jouban vs Belal Muhammad

I normally don’t take outside effects into my picks but I think this is noteworthy as I watch the fighter’s fights as well as even message the fighters themselves to try to get some inside track info.  Well, Belal Muhammed is taking this fight on somewhat short notice.  Taleb Nordine was expected to fight Alan but he pulled out of the card on June 7^th.  It also happens that Belal is Muslim and Ramadan started on June 5^th.  So his whole camp he has been fasting.  He is also fighting Jouban who is well rounded fighter and good jiu jitsu.  Belal Muhammad won his most recent fight in Titan FC beating Steve Carl for their 170lbs belt.  Steve Carl showed us in the Ultimate Fighter why he isn’t in the UFC, so I wouldn’t let that win and his undeafeted record carry too much weight.  Belal is a decent fighter but his fasting and the fact that he is taking his first fight in the Octagon in the main event on short notice is going against him.  I’m picking Jouban by Sub.

Anthony Birchak vs Dileno Lopes

This is one of my upset picks.  Vegas Odds on this one -250 Birchak =210 Lopes.  Both fighters are coming off loses. Lopes is coming off a close fight in the TUF Brazil 4 Finale.  Lopes is a well-rounded fighter with good body kicks and a fantastic guillotine choke.  Anthony Birchak is long fighter for bantamweight.  He is going to try to fight on the outside and look to land strikes and combos.   However his fight IQ is in question I’ve seen him take a leg lock expert to the ground in the first seconds of the fight to get himself submitted by a leg lock. His choice to stand and trade with Thomas Alemida was also questionable and despite his wrestling experience.  I don’t trust him to fight smart, I see Lopes out grappling Birchak in this fight.  Dileno Lopes is a promising fighter with a great guillotine which I think will be the key to this fight. 

Mike Pyle vs Alberto Mina

Mike Pyle age ain’t nothing but a number.  At the young age of 40 years Mike Pyle is still one of the more dangerous fighters out there.  He is a craft veteran with good Muay Thai and crafty submissions.  He does have issues against really athletic young fighters at the top of their game but Alberto Mina is not that fighter. Alberto Mina is coming off a split decision win against a 40 year old Yoshihiro Akiyama. Mina cardio came into question in that fight.  He was also getting picked apart with kicks to the legs. He has a pretty record but I don’t think he’s been fighting superstars.  Alberto got his 12-0 record from basically fighting tomato cans. Mike Pyle is no tomato can this has be a pick on your fight card.

Reginaldo Vieira vs Marco Beltran

I’m going Reginaldo on this one.  He has great jiu jitsu with a lot of submissions wins. Beltran on the other hand is very wild fighter, he fights on the outside likes to stay on his toes look for angles before he leaps in to strike.  Marco has shown that he can’t get off his back unless the Ref stands him up so I see Reginaldo easily getting the fight to the ground and finishing Beltran.  Reginaldo has a lot more experience and Beltran doesn’t have the tools to stop Reginaldo’s ground game.