UFC Fight Night 85 Hunt vs Mir Pick and DraftKings Card

I’m going to list my picks then provide an analysis of my Draft Kings picks.  I used to try to breakdown every fight.  That took forever and I usually didn’t finish so I never posted anything.  Breaking down only 5 fights is a lot easier and gives me the time to really stress why I think the fighters are going to win or finish.  (Finishes being the most important aspect of Fantasy MMA as that’s how we win cash.)

Mark Hunt vs Frank Mir

Pick Mark Hunt KO 1^st round

Neil Magney vs Hector Lombard

Pick Magney  UD

Jake Matthews vs Johnny Case

Case UD

Dan Kelly vs Antonio Carlos Jr.

Shoeface Sub 2^nd

James Te Huna vs Steve Bosse

Te Huna KO 1^st

Bec Rawlings vs Seohee Ham

Seohee Ham UD (research)

Brendan O’Reilly vs Alan Jouban

Jouban Sub 2^nd

Richard Walsh vs Viscardi Andrade

Viscardi KO 3^rd

Damien Brown vs Alan Patrick

Patrick 1^st KO

Ross Pearson vs Chad Laprise

Ross Pearson 3^rd KO

Leslie Smith vs Rin Nakai

Leslie Smith UD

Dan Hooker Vs Mark Eddiva

Hooker UD

My Draft Kings Card

Fighter	Value
Mark Hunt	$10,300
Neil Magney	$9,800
Johnny Case	$9,700
Allan Patrick	$10,800
Ross Pearson	$9,300

Mark Hunt vs Frank Mir

Mark Hunt is a K-1 Champion high level striker and the King of the “Walk-a-Way” Knockout.  He is going against one of the most notorious Heavyweight submission specialist in the UFC, breaking two arms in the Octagon.  Both of these guys are on a cross roads, however I see Mark Hunt pulling this off.  Despite the age of 41, Mark Hunt still has his power.  Mir’s striking has been on point but against guys who weren’t known for their striking ability.  Obviously Frank Mir has the grappling advantage but when is the last time you seen Frank Mir land a takedown.  In the Big Nog fight he tripped and fell off the cage and grabbed Nog’s arm luckily.  In the Arlovski fight he got the takedown but did little damage in the guard and got stood up.  I just don’t see Frank Mir getting Mark Hunt down without eating some shots to the face and If Mark lands those shots I don’t think Frank will be able to recover.  Picking Mark here.

Neil Magney vs Hector Lombard

Hector Lombard is a fucking monster, he’s got KO power and highly level Judo.  Now that he can’t take steroids anymore I don’t know how much of that is true anymore.   I’m looking forward to seeing what Hector looks like in the weigh-ins for this fight since getting popped for steroids.  He stated some bullshit excuse that he was sick and some lady give him a Z pack (anti-biotics). The steroid issue aside, we have seen that Neil can take a punch. He weathered the storm from Erick Silva, Kevin Gasselum and Hyun Gyu Lim all heavy hitters.  That’s the key to beating Hector, weathering Showeather’s storm then using that 9 inch reach advantage to enact his gameplan. Hector gasses easily, lets see if Neil can make it out the first round.     

Jake Matthews  vs Johnny Case

Can Crusher Alert Can Crusher Alert. Jake Mathew’s wins have all came from bums.   I’ve should have stated this before I started writing but I think all of the Australian fighters are bums. I know you guys are expecting a breakdown between Case and Matthews with a more skilled based analysis but that is hard to do with Can Crusher.  They look great against them and its hard to pick out their holes in their game. What I can take from Matthews’s last loss against, James Vick, was that he tried to muscle his opponent against the cage.  For his efforts, he ate uppercuts then Vick slipped his arm underneath Matthews neck and just proceeded to get choked out instead of fighting the hands.  I think the Justin Bieber look alike had an easy road in the UFC thus far.   I gotta go with Case on this one. 

Allan Patrick vs Damien Brown

Allan Patrick is fighting some random Australian fighter Joe Silva pulled out of Tae Bo class.  Tae Bo is what Australian call Muay Thai training that’s why Australian fighters get there ass kicked.   Damien Brown is taking this fight on 7 days’ notice.  Some of you might be like “Hey Gabe didn’t Kyle Noke lose to Alex Morono on also a week notice.  Exactly that’s my point, Kyle Noke is Australian therefore a garbage fighter.  There is a theme here, don’t  put money on the Australians.

Ross Pearson vs Chad Laprise  (UPSET PICK)

So I must say I don’t understand why Vegas has Laprise as the favorite.  Even if you do MMA math, there common opponent is Francisco Trinaldo both lost to him but Chad is the one that got knocked out by him.  I think the odds makers are looking way to hard into Chad’s record. Ross has been in the UFC for long time, I haven’t seen his chin go.  Most of his loses come to mental mistakes and some of the loses are bullshit decisions but I haven’t seen a degeneration in Ross’s skill set yet.  But I will say this about Chad Laprise that he uses a lot of movement to stay allusive. He has excellent footwork.  His kryptonite seems to be guys who move forward and push the pace.  You know what Ross Pearson does, move forward and push the pace.  The “Sage Killer” Bryan Barberena showed the holes in Laprise game when he came forward and made it a brawl. If Pearson keeps Laprise in his headlights, its going to be short day for the Brit. This is the upset pick, if you know a bookie this is the fight that I would be willing to put cash down for.    

Beware of Can Crushers

Beware of the Can Crushers

This is my biggest pitfall when I’m making my DraftKings card.  These Can Crushers ruin my evening.  I’ll be at home, seen a couple fighters on my card get a first round stoppage and I think to myself, I’ll be in the money until my Can Crusher shits the bed and ruins my fight card. 

Brandon Thatch ruined my card last Saturday.  Yes Brandon Thatch is a Can Crusher.  I picked Thatch because like most Can Crushers.  He came into the UFC destroying his opponents in spectacular fashion.  Joe Rogan and Goldie start calling him a top prospect.  He has a setback against Benson Henderson, so what, Benson has high level jujitsu and a former world champ.  I chalk that up to learning curve,  he also losses against Gunnar Nelson,  I chalk that up to just getting caught, perhaps Gunnar big right that setup the choke was attributed to working with Conor for their fights on UFC 189.   I mean Come On, Brandon Thatch is supposed to be the next big prospect. He’s a huge for the weight class, all tattated up, he should win, right?  Didn’t you see how he knocked out his first two opponents?  Yeah, he is coming off two loses but those are named opponents.   He is opponent is also coming off two loses as well and 800 day layoff due to injuries   Why wouldn’t I pick him. 

Well that is because like all Can Crushers they make their names fighting BUMS.  Let’s take a look at the record of Brandon Thatch’s first two opponents for the last seven fights.   

Justin Edwards (2-7)                                      Paulio Thiago  (2-7)

Opponent	Win/Lose		Opponent	Win/Loss
Joe Proctor	Loss		Sean Spencer	Loss
Rasmey Nijem	Loss		Gasan Umalatov	Loss
Brandon Thatch	Loss		Brandon Thatch	Loss
Josh Neer	Win		Michel Przeres	Win
John Maguire	Loss		Dong Hyun Kim	Loss
Jorge Lopez	Win		Siyar Bahadurzada	Loss
Clay Harvison	Loss		David Mitchell	Win

These two fighters are the definition of a Can fighter and if you don’t know here is the Wikipedia definition.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tomato_can_%28sports_idiom%29

Erick Silva

Erick Silva is the most notorious Can Crusher there is in the UFC.  Mostly because the UFC spreads out his Can fights with actual opponents to hide the fact he just betting up Tomato Cans.  Erick Silva has 12 fights in the UFC  (7-5) (* Not counting the Carlos Prater fight as a loss, Mario Yamakei is a horrible ref and the shots he landed were legal it shouldn’t have been a disqualification, Joe Rogan is the name and showed him on the replay they were clean shots during his fighter interview).  None of the fighters he beat are currently in the UFC, all of them have been cut, including Prater.  Erick Silva fools you with his highlight heels and his first round KO’s and Submissions but Erick Silva is a can crusher.

I was distracted for last week’s card didn’t get a chance to do the research necessary to avoid picking a Can Crusher.    Don’t forget to research the quality of the opponent, forget spectacular nature of the win. 

The flame that burns twice as bright, burns half as long. 

Holm vs Tate: Miesha’s Path to Victory

Wow, Four months after the Serra-style “shock the world” KO of Ronda Rousey. Holm is back in the Octagon against No. 1 Contender Miesha Tate.  I will tell you this, Miesha Tate is a tougher matchup for Holly Holm than Ronda Rousey.

I think this fight is going to come to game plan and adjustments in the ring. We all watched Rousey fight where Rousey just kept coming charging forwarded and kept getting picked apart.  Miesha showed she could make adjustments in the Jessica Eye fight.  Eye was winning the early exchanges, then Miesha made some adjustments in her striking and BOOM dropped Eye in the first round with a big punch. 

When it comes to game plans, Holly Holm’ game plan is to keep the distance.  Holly used a lot of footwork and a lot of lateral movement in her last fight.  Miesha’s game plan has to be to effectively close the distance.  Not by rushing in but by cutting off the cage. Not only should Miesha impede her movement by cutting her off, she also needs to attack her legs.  Miesha shouldn’t even attempt a takedown for the first two rounds.  Miesha needs to maintain Octagon control, attack Holly’s legs and if she can, hold her against the cage.  Foot stomps!!.  Wearing out the legs is key.

Miesha also needs to worry about her cardio when she is working against the fence.  She is going to have to make Holly work harder to improve her position while maintaining a dominant position without letting the ref return them to the center of the Octagon.   She should make it a grueling fight.  Planting her forehead against Holly’s upper body and press her against the fence.   Holly holm is probably the strongest 135 lbs in the division.  She is long and lean and Miesha is not going to be able to out muscle her, so her technique is going to have to be on point. 

The next key to victory is countering those front leg sidekicks.  This is going to be Holly’s primary weapon.  Holly loves to use this technique, to keep her opponents from closing the distance.  Miesha needs find a way to counter this technique by timing side step counter strike or takedown. 

I’m predicting Miesha to win this one; Miesha has the durability and the experience to squeak out a win.  Holly is going to be concerned  about the takedown.  Holly Holm will probably be on her bike again. Miesha can’t get over aggressive and let Holly Holm sit down on that counter left, while she charges in.  When she does come in she has to use superior head movement.  This is going to be a snoozer of a fight, if Miesha wants to win. 

Predication Miesha Tate Split decision