TUF 22 Finale Fight Picks

Ultimate Fighter Finale: Team Mcgregor vs. Team Faber

Please excuse the typos.  I didn't get a chance for my beautiful and smart lawyer girlfriend to edit my post. 

Chris Gruetzemacher vs Abner Lloveras

This is an interesting matchup.  Abner lloveras  has shown a good ground game and good striking.  The thing about Abner styles is, he is not a pressure fighter.  He is mostly a counter striker/counter wrestler. He is not a come forward fighter.  Chris G. is that type of fighter,  he has the wrestling to stay away from Abner’s ground game.  I see this ending in decision Chris G

Julian Erosa vs Marcin Wzosek

Julian is shitty point fighter with bad head movement.  He is also a grown ass man with a nickname of “Juicy”.  I’m not on board with that.  Can’t call a grown man “Juicy” Eh.  Marcin is going to win because Marcin tries and knows how to win.  Marcin by third round RNC. 

Joby Sanchez vs Geane Herrera

Geane Herrera is taking another fight on short notice.  The kid has a week to prepare for this fight.  He has shown that he can hang in there with the likes of Ray Borg and not get choked.  I’m not going to analyze what Geane Herrara can do because Ray was able to keep him down and that’s not Joby Sanchez game at all.  What I can tell you about Joby is that he likes to keep it standing and stay on the outside.  He has power.  Even Joby’s debut in the UFC that he took on short notice he dropped his opponent in both rounds with strikes despite losing a unanimous decision.  I’m going Joby Sanchez.  He has a full camp and is a decent striker.  In terms of betting this a pick’em Kountermove and vegas has dead even.

Gabriel Gonzaga vs Konstantin Erokhin

Erokhin has crazy KO power and no ground game.  Unless Gonzaga doesn’t survive the early storm of Erokhin, this fight will end in submission.  All of Erokhin finishes come in the first round due to strikes, his ground game consists of holding on for dear life, which will not work against the BJJ champ Gabriel Gonzaga. 

Prediction Gonzaga by submission round 2 Despite Gonzaga loss against Cro Cop he was very competitive and showed that he can hang in there more than one round with an elite striker.  For a Kountermove card at $5000 is a great price for fighter whose going to finish.  Heavyweights are a most pick they usually are a guarantee finish. 

Tatsuya Kawajiri vs Jason Knight

Alight my favorite kind of fight to breakdown, An aging fighter vs some dude I never heard of.  I’m trying to do more research for my favorites so I’m literally watching the fight at my desk right now.  I’m streaming Fight Pass on my cell in front of my keyboard and I got the my contract writing system open in one monitor with a word document open writing my blog and Outlook opening in another monitor .  It looks like I’m working but I’m just breaking down fights like a boss.  After watching Jason Knights last fight on Titan FC (God Bless, Fight Pass).  Kawajiri could probably when a striking match because Jason isn’t technical at all.  I don’t even know if Kawajiri is a technical striker.  Lets just say that Jason sucks at stand up and call it day.   What he is good at, is grappling and submissions.  So this is how the fights going to go.  Kawajiri is going to takedown Knight.  Knight is going to go straight to mission control (rubber guard). Kawajiji is going to throw some pawing pitty pat strikes.  They will basically do this back and forth for a while. The ref will stand them up Kawajiri might pass.  I’m actually really looking forward to this fight.  Both of these  guys will play into each other’s strength. You have a guy who has good top control and you have a guy that gets a lot of submissions off his back.  I gotta tip my hat to Kawajiri he has an experience edge and Jason Knight is taking this fight on two weeks’ notice. 

Prediction: This so frustrating.  I gotta say Kawajiri by TKO on the third round.  I haven’t made my card yet but I just got a shaky feeling that Jason Knight is going to pull out some beautiful submission  At the same time I think its my love of those submission specialists . My heart says Knight but my brain says Kawajiri.  I’m staying away from this fight on Kountermove.  I can easily see knights mission control slowing down Kawajiri’s offense which also slows down the amount of points he can get. 

Joe Lauzon vs Evan Dunham

Evan Dunham is a smart fighter.  .  He likes to use his striking to setup up his takedowns, where he shows off his awesome Jiu Jitsu.   Then we have motherfucking Joe Lauzon.  Mr. Fight of the Night.  I love Joe Lauzon. I remember his first fight coming into the UFC out of nowhere and knocking out the former UFC lightweight champ Jens Pulver. He is good at jumping on submissions.  But I gotta go with Evan Dunham, Joe Lauzon can’t adjust when you gets into bad positions.   I love Joe Lauzon but once again I think Evan Dunham is the smarter pickher.  So here is the interesting thing, Evan Dunham is the favorite here.  Dunham -180 Lauzon +140. So again Kountermove is going against Vegas  with $5100 Luzon vs $4500 Dunham.  I mean Lauzon is either going to lose this fight or finish the fight.  I mean he is the fight of the night king for a reason. 

PredictionI don’t think Dunham has the holes that Lauzon tends to exploit my pick is Evan Dunham. 

Edson Barboza vs Tony Ferguson

Edson Barboza has some of the nastiest leg kicks in the UFC.  His striking is on point.  Tony Ferguson however is on a tear and he is good everywhere.  If you look at the fights Edson Barboza has lost they have been fighters who aren’t afraid to get in his face.  If you are going to stand on the outside and let Edson Barboza tee off on you. You are going to lose.  Tony does one thing I hate though.  He goes for submissions before maintaing position.  On a regular basis, it kills me.   

Update: 11:16pm  I'm changing my pick Lauzon I can't vote against that guy.  This might be stupid.

Update 11:35 A couple of beers and fandom. Why can't you adapt Lauzon.  Back to the old pick

Prediction: Wrestlers have given Barboza problems. Tony has the wrestling and boxing to nullify Barboza’s kicking game.  Vegas has it -175 Ferguson +150 Barboza.  Kountermove has it $4800 $4800.  You gotta pick Tony for your card.

Mike Pierce vs Ryan Laflare

I’m not going to go into this fight that much.  There won’t be a finish Mike Pierce is a solid wrestler boxer and Ryan Laflare is an all around great fighter.  Mike Pierce has had a long lay off  because of that asshole Palhares but LaFlare is winning this one. 

Prediction LaFlare by unanimous decision, at $4900 LaFlare is going to be the fighter to get you a lot of points but he will get you the win Vegas odds has this fight -220 LaFlare + 170 Pierece

Artem Lobov vs Ryan Hall

Wow crazy way to end the show.  However you will note that I called Artem and Sauls being the finale..  However I did not call Sauls visa issues.  Artem is crazy striker that loves to bang throws his punches from his hips and from crazy angles.   Then you have the BJJ guru Ryan Hall who has sick leg lock game.  So here is the thing, Ryan Hall is not athletic. He is not going to be able to execute a takedown on Artem.  I’m rooting for Ryan Hall.  I just learned he lives Falls Church VA which is very close to where I live in Washington DC.   He doesn’t have the abilities to execute his game.  What we saw from the Ultimate fighter is, Connor was able to coach  Saul how to get out of those tricky situations. 

Prediction:  Artem is going to when by KO.  Artem is $5000 on kountermove.  That’s a good pick for a guy who has shown he can finish fights.  

Frankie Edgar vs Chad Mendes 

Wow!!Wow!!Wow.  This fight is going to be epic.  Frankie just does everything right.  Frankie just mixes everything perfectly,  his strikes, footwork, and wrestling into just great performances.   We have seen the best of Frankie, we saw what he did to Killer Cub Swanson.  I got up early in the morning to see his fight against Faber.  It’s hard to not give Frankie the nod.  On the other hand you got Chad “Money” Mendes.  This guy is dynamic wrestler with just one punch knockout power.   I think in this matchup you gotta give the power advantage to Mendes. 

Prediction: Fight of the Year Edgar by decision. 

My KM Card:                                     

Gabriel Gonzaga

Frankie Edgar

Tony Ferguson

Artem Lobov

Marcin Wazereick