UFC FN 80 VanZant vs Namajunas
This is my first breakdown.
I’m going to go out and say this: I’m a human being. I have bias.
I know this bias leads me to pick my fandom rather than actually
analyzing past performances. This is also
the reason I’ve started this blog. I
really want to be held accountable for my picks and do the research necessary
to provide my audience with solid analysis. I also really wanted to put some
cool graphics in this blog but I don’t have the time. But expect more for the
cards after this weekend.
Lets start at the bottom of the card.
Nathan Coy vs Danny Roberts
Nathan Coy fought in the last Ultimate fighter 20:
Blackzillians vs American Top Team.
There were like 3 good fights that entire season. Nathan Coy wasn’t a part
of any of them. Nathan Coy is taking
this fight on less than two weeks’ notice.
He has weird chest hair. He is a
wrestler that just wants to lay and pray.
He is 37 going on 45 or maybe he used to dabble in meth. On the other hand we have a fighter making
their Octagon debut.
Octagon Debut fighters are the worst, here is why.
1. you never know the caliber opponent they fought in the
past.
2. So their 10-0 record could be padded
3. Octagon Jitters
4. You can’t find their fights on YouTube.
That being said the guy looks young, explosive and a
gamer. He is not a world beater but he
is pretty well-rounded. I have would
have given my stamp of approval for Mr. Roberts against his previous opponent
Michael Graves. However watching Danny’s
last fight he throws a looping left hook, gets taken down and his opponent goes
straight into mount. This is exactly
what Nathan Coy is looking to do. Danny
eventually gets out of some bad positions and gets back to his feet to catch
his opponent with an uppercut to knock him down and then finish the fight in
the first round. Yes I would like to see
more angles and lateral movements from Danny Roberts. (And for God’s sake please stay off the cage.)
He has a good shot at winning with a finish if he does those simple things.
My prediction is Danny Roberts with 60% confidence. The short notice and youth goes to Danny’s
favor. However, I’m only providing 60%
because I can easily see Coy squeezing out a split decision, but my prediction
is 2 round TKO Roberts.
Under Kountermove Coy is $4600 and low probability of
finishing or scoring any significant strikes and is not worth the money. Danny Roberts has the tools to finish and is
worth $4800. I have Danny Roberts in my Kountermove because he is priced
right.
Kailin Curran vs Emily Kagan
Kailin is young, hungry and an excellent striker. She is only going to lose this fight if she does
the same thing she did in the Alex Chambers fight. Which is to decide after she
won every second of every round to jump in Emily’s guard so she could be arm-barred. Emily Kagan has one shot to win and that is
if she asks Kailin to stop punching and kicking her in the face and just jump
into her guard so she can be arm-barred.
My prediction KO by
Kailin in the first or second. She is younger,
prettier, and all-around better fighter.
Zubaira Turkhugov vs Phillipe Nover
Zubaira is a Tiger Muay Thai guy. He has a good power double; he likes to keep
it standing for the most part. Phillipe
Nover will try to use his new wrestling skills.
Watching both Zubaria and Phillipe, I have to pick Zubaira. Zubaira has better striking and foot
movement. Phillipe will probably look to
wrestle his opponent again. This strategy
did not work out in his last fight as he ended up gassing at the end of the 3rd
round. Based on Zubaira’s Kountermove
value, $4900, this is a decent pick for a favorite.
Santiago Ponziniblo vs Andreas Stahl
Santiago has got this fight, Andreas’s only UFC fight was a
loss against an overweight, octagon jittered Gilbert Burns who was too undersized
to effectively use his jiu-jitsu skills. Stahl isn’t winning this one. The only
thing he is bringing is pressure and that is not enough to win this fight. Based on the Kountermove dollars, you can
probably find a cheaper sure thing than Ponz. Confidence rating at 75%
Aljamain Sterling vs Johnny Eduardo
Aljamain Sterling is Longo Serra guy who is just a
monster. He is going to blow through
Johnny Eduardo. Al is not going to allow
Johnny to knock him out like Wineland. This
is a sure win. 90% confidence Aljamain
will get the win but I am not terribly sure he will get the finish. You are rolling the dice on the price.
Antonio Carlos Junior vs Kevin Casey
*Hate Pick* Disclaimer – So I don’t like Kevin, he is
steroid cheat and an overblown welterweight with overrated jiu-jitsu. Kevin cuts a lot of weight, he should be affected
by the IV ban. Antonio is long enough to
keep Casey away. Casey will gas in the 3rd
round. This is the value pick of this
card. On Kountermove this is $4800 vs $4800 and Vegas odds have this -300
Carlos +250 Casey. Best pick for a
Kountermove Card.
Omari Akhmedov vs
Sergio Morales
Sergio Morales is fucking scrappy Brazilian grappling
champ. He is taking this fight on short
notice. However his opponent Omari has never fought anyone notable to date and
his last opponent’s knee just blew out.
He is a lumbering Russian who seems to gas in the last round. His overly muscled build isn’t made for long
fights and Sergio Morales is hard to put away.
Omari is the favorite but at $4600 this is your upset pick. If you picked Sage Northcutt because you
don’t know how Kountermove works with dollar values this is your pick at $4600
Sergio to $5000 Omari.
Tim Means vs John Howard
Not going to elaborate on this, Tim is winning. However I have a 60% confidence rate that Tim
can finish because John Howard is tough.
Sage Northcutt vs Cody Pfister
I’m going to say I picked Cody to win on his last fight for
UFC 189. There is no way he is going to
win this fight. They gave Sage a slow
unathletic grinder, this fight will end in the first round.
Sage will ruin your budget on Kountermove go with another
one of the sure wins.
Michael Chiesa vs Jim Miller
This is going to be a tough fight. We have two grapplers. None of them are known
for the knockout ability. Vegas
Odds: Miller +105 Chiesa -125 making
Chiesa the slight favorite. Chiesa is
the longer fighter with a 5 inch reach advantage. However Chiesa only uses his striking to set up
takedowns. This is going to be a back ‘n
forth match, with the majority of the action on the ground. I’m calling this a split decision. Jim Miller hasn’t lost a step yet but I
think the Ultimate Fighter winner has enough experience to hang with Jim and to
squeak out a split decision. This will
be a close fight. I would avoid this
fight all together as I doubt it will generate enough points to be worth your
fantasy dollar cap.
Main Event: Rose
Namajunas vs Paige VanZant
Vegas Odds: -185
VanZant +160 Namajunas. Kountermove
has it $4900 VanZant, $5300 Namajunas.
I always find it intriguing when Kountermove goes against Vegas
odds. They had it right when they priced
Weidman over Anderson in the first fight and they are going against Vegas again
in the Main Event and I agree with them.
Looking at their records Rose 3-2 and Paige 6-1 on paper I see why you
would favor Paige but I think people are forgetting Rose’s fights in the TUF
house and how she buzz sawed through her opponents. She did lose in the finale however she
started to believe that she could go out there balls to the wall, throwing
caution into the wind against a really good takedown artist, and she paid for
it. I believe she learned from this
mistake and won’t get out there buck wild again.
Paige is a very predictable fighter. She is going to close
the distance, clinch, push you up to the cage, takedown, ground and pound to
set up a finish. She is going to try and
chain through this strategy the entire fight.
Rose has more tools in her toolbox.
Rose has the advantage in the striking realm, for the brief time she was
standing with Angela Hill she was winning in the exchanges. She was able to
circle out and establish her jab to score until she stepped in for a right hand
that turned into a takedown and started
the beginning of the end of the fight for Angela Hill. I don’t see Paige
being able to effectively control the fight without putting herself in a lot of
danger. Rose’s key to victory: she will
need keep the distance and making Paige stay on the outside. When it does get into the clinch, Rose will
end up in the dominant position. She has the grappling advantage. She proved it in the TUF House; don’t forget
her flying arm-bar. Thug Rose all day.
MY KM Picks
Tim Means
Zubaira Tukhugov
Anonio Carlos Jr.
Rose Namajunas
Danny Roberts
Good stuff. I'll take some Rose.
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