Dethoned!! What's Next

Dethroned!!! What’s Next

There has been a lot of change of gold this year in the UFC.  I’m going to give you may fan point and view and also consider Dana White promotional view point as well

Holly Holm vs ??????

Holly Holm literally pulled at Matt Serra.  When she said I’m going to shock the world.  I was like “Ha” you’re not a stock Italian from Long Island, get out of here with that nonsense.  And then she shut everyone the fuck up! She literally just beat the unbeatable.  Just out classed Ronda everywhere.  It was a great performance.  Holly never showed any of that in her two UFC fights.   So what’s next for Holly Holm?  I will go ahead and say this, from a Dana White, promotional point a view.  Holm vs Rousey II for UFC 200 would be biggest PPV than UFC 100 189 and 194.  From a dollar stand point that fight is going to get the most PPV buys.  However, I don’t want to wait till July. I wanna see her fight now.  She’s 34 years old.  She isn’t getting any younger.  She didn’t take any damage in that fight. Let’s give her Miesha or Cat. Holm doesn’t want to wait.   I don’t want to wait.  You can’t just put your champion on ice.   She has that movie Fight Valley coming out that could be less horrible than some of the other MMA movies (Never Surrender or Unrivaled both Crap).  I wanna see her fight sooner than later. 

Conor Mcgregor vs ?????

After this Saturday we are going to find out who Conor is going to fight next.  If Dos Anjos has a clean cut win of Cerrone, I can see Conor staying for around  the featherweight division.  If Cerrone has a clear cut win over Dos Anjos, Conor is going up in weight class.  Cerrone is a bigger draw and causal fans probably don’t know  Dos Anjos name.  So Dana White is probably going to flip flop on his whole Jose Aldo deserves a rematch thing like he did for Ronda. Personally I’m kind of over the whole Jose Aldo vs Conor Mcgregor bout.  They have been hyping one fight for over a year. They did a full court press media tour.  And I need a break.  That matchup was been over promoted and a rematch does not intrigue me.  I feel like the first fight should have happened when it schduled have in July  and I would have been ok with the rematch on 12/12 but with the over promotion of one fight for one year.  I’m just not intrigued with the rematch.  If it was a competitive back n forth war.  Yeah, sign me up.  It was a one punch knockout in 13 seconds.   I think Jose should fight Max Holloway for the number one contender spot.  I wanna see Edgar v. McGregor or McGregor vs Dos Anjos/Cerrone. 

Upsets, Hype and the Truth

VanZant vs Numajanuas

I don’t know what fights that you have been watching but Paige had a lot of holes in her game from the beginning.  Paige for the first time was kept on the outside with someone who had superior striking.  Paige has always engaged in the clinch.  She strikes from there and that’s how she gets her takedowns.  However Rose has superior grappling she submitted everyone in the TUF house.  Rose has shown more skill in her fights and Paige has shown that she can dominate lesser opponents.  Paige = Hype

 Rose = Truth

Elias Theodorou vs Thiago Santos

For some reason I thought that Elias was this massive middleweight.  I was really mistaken.  If I would have seen the weigh-ins and could have judged his size.  I would have changed my picks.  We saw that once Elias couldn’t get Thiago down, he could not handle Thiago’s stand up.  Based on Thiago’s fights it was hard to predict his takedown defense, since his only grappling loss, due to a guillotine choke, occurred two years ago.  Thiago has takedown defense dully noted.  Elias = Hype.

Yoel Romero vs Ronaldo Souza

My whole rationale for not understanding for why Jacare was supposed to be favorite was due to his strength being grappling.  While guess what? Yoel has a silver medal in the Olympics for wrestling.  That was my whole argument for Yoel in this fight.  Jacare can’t implement his game without taking Yoel down.  That being said Yoel has suspect cardio.  Drop some of that mass dude. Yoel = Upset

Luke Rockhold vs Chris Wiedman

I just got say I picked Rockhold.  I just gotta go with the longer ranger fighter.  Rockhold is just the better fighter.  Herb Dean should have stopped that damn fight at the end 3^rd.  I can easily see a rematch going the other direction.  Bring on Yoel!

Conor McGregor vs Jose Aldo

I never thought that Conor was hype and after the Mendes fight I just thought we found his weakness.  Conor was always great at judging the distance and his using his range effectively to strike and counter-striker.  He is not just good great at those things he is the best!!  Then he talks a lot of shit, gets its his opponent  upset, which in turn makes them overly aggressive. Than Bam!!.  I was hoping that Aldo would shoot but he did the opposite.  I thought Aldo had the speed and power advantage. However, Conor Mcgregor proved that”Precision beats power, and timing beats speed.” Conor = Truth

TUF 22 Finale Fight Picks

Ultimate Fighter Finale: Team Mcgregor vs. Team Faber

Please excuse the typos.  I didn't get a chance for my beautiful and smart lawyer girlfriend to edit my post. 

Chris Gruetzemacher vs Abner Lloveras

This is an interesting matchup.  Abner lloveras  has shown a good ground game and good striking.  The thing about Abner styles is, he is not a pressure fighter.  He is mostly a counter striker/counter wrestler. He is not a come forward fighter.  Chris G. is that type of fighter,  he has the wrestling to stay away from Abner’s ground game.  I see this ending in decision Chris G

Julian Erosa vs Marcin Wzosek

Julian is shitty point fighter with bad head movement.  He is also a grown ass man with a nickname of “Juicy”.  I’m not on board with that.  Can’t call a grown man “Juicy” Eh.  Marcin is going to win because Marcin tries and knows how to win.  Marcin by third round RNC. 

Joby Sanchez vs Geane Herrera

Geane Herrera is taking another fight on short notice.  The kid has a week to prepare for this fight.  He has shown that he can hang in there with the likes of Ray Borg and not get choked.  I’m not going to analyze what Geane Herrara can do because Ray was able to keep him down and that’s not Joby Sanchez game at all.  What I can tell you about Joby is that he likes to keep it standing and stay on the outside.  He has power.  Even Joby’s debut in the UFC that he took on short notice he dropped his opponent in both rounds with strikes despite losing a unanimous decision.  I’m going Joby Sanchez.  He has a full camp and is a decent striker.  In terms of betting this a pick’em Kountermove and vegas has dead even.

Gabriel Gonzaga vs Konstantin Erokhin

Erokhin has crazy KO power and no ground game.  Unless Gonzaga doesn’t survive the early storm of Erokhin, this fight will end in submission.  All of Erokhin finishes come in the first round due to strikes, his ground game consists of holding on for dear life, which will not work against the BJJ champ Gabriel Gonzaga. 

Prediction Gonzaga by submission round 2 Despite Gonzaga loss against Cro Cop he was very competitive and showed that he can hang in there more than one round with an elite striker.  For a Kountermove card at $5000 is a great price for fighter whose going to finish.  Heavyweights are a most pick they usually are a guarantee finish. 

Tatsuya Kawajiri vs Jason Knight

Alight my favorite kind of fight to breakdown, An aging fighter vs some dude I never heard of.  I’m trying to do more research for my favorites so I’m literally watching the fight at my desk right now.  I’m streaming Fight Pass on my cell in front of my keyboard and I got the my contract writing system open in one monitor with a word document open writing my blog and Outlook opening in another monitor .  It looks like I’m working but I’m just breaking down fights like a boss.  After watching Jason Knights last fight on Titan FC (God Bless, Fight Pass).  Kawajiri could probably when a striking match because Jason isn’t technical at all.  I don’t even know if Kawajiri is a technical striker.  Lets just say that Jason sucks at stand up and call it day.   What he is good at, is grappling and submissions.  So this is how the fights going to go.  Kawajiri is going to takedown Knight.  Knight is going to go straight to mission control (rubber guard). Kawajiji is going to throw some pawing pitty pat strikes.  They will basically do this back and forth for a while. The ref will stand them up Kawajiri might pass.  I’m actually really looking forward to this fight.  Both of these  guys will play into each other’s strength. You have a guy who has good top control and you have a guy that gets a lot of submissions off his back.  I gotta tip my hat to Kawajiri he has an experience edge and Jason Knight is taking this fight on two weeks’ notice. 

Prediction: This so frustrating.  I gotta say Kawajiri by TKO on the third round.  I haven’t made my card yet but I just got a shaky feeling that Jason Knight is going to pull out some beautiful submission  At the same time I think its my love of those submission specialists . My heart says Knight but my brain says Kawajiri.  I’m staying away from this fight on Kountermove.  I can easily see knights mission control slowing down Kawajiri’s offense which also slows down the amount of points he can get. 

Joe Lauzon vs Evan Dunham

Evan Dunham is a smart fighter.  .  He likes to use his striking to setup up his takedowns, where he shows off his awesome Jiu Jitsu.   Then we have motherfucking Joe Lauzon.  Mr. Fight of the Night.  I love Joe Lauzon. I remember his first fight coming into the UFC out of nowhere and knocking out the former UFC lightweight champ Jens Pulver. He is good at jumping on submissions.  But I gotta go with Evan Dunham, Joe Lauzon can’t adjust when you gets into bad positions.   I love Joe Lauzon but once again I think Evan Dunham is the smarter pickher.  So here is the interesting thing, Evan Dunham is the favorite here.  Dunham -180 Lauzon +140. So again Kountermove is going against Vegas  with $5100 Luzon vs $4500 Dunham.  I mean Lauzon is either going to lose this fight or finish the fight.  I mean he is the fight of the night king for a reason. 

PredictionI don’t think Dunham has the holes that Lauzon tends to exploit my pick is Evan Dunham. 

Edson Barboza vs Tony Ferguson

Edson Barboza has some of the nastiest leg kicks in the UFC.  His striking is on point.  Tony Ferguson however is on a tear and he is good everywhere.  If you look at the fights Edson Barboza has lost they have been fighters who aren’t afraid to get in his face.  If you are going to stand on the outside and let Edson Barboza tee off on you. You are going to lose.  Tony does one thing I hate though.  He goes for submissions before maintaing position.  On a regular basis, it kills me.   

Update: 11:16pm  I'm changing my pick Lauzon I can't vote against that guy.  This might be stupid.

Update 11:35 A couple of beers and fandom. Why can't you adapt Lauzon.  Back to the old pick

Prediction: Wrestlers have given Barboza problems. Tony has the wrestling and boxing to nullify Barboza’s kicking game.  Vegas has it -175 Ferguson +150 Barboza.  Kountermove has it $4800 $4800.  You gotta pick Tony for your card.

Mike Pierce vs Ryan Laflare

I’m not going to go into this fight that much.  There won’t be a finish Mike Pierce is a solid wrestler boxer and Ryan Laflare is an all around great fighter.  Mike Pierce has had a long lay off  because of that asshole Palhares but LaFlare is winning this one. 

Prediction LaFlare by unanimous decision, at $4900 LaFlare is going to be the fighter to get you a lot of points but he will get you the win Vegas odds has this fight -220 LaFlare + 170 Pierece

Artem Lobov vs Ryan Hall

Wow crazy way to end the show.  However you will note that I called Artem and Sauls being the finale..  However I did not call Sauls visa issues.  Artem is crazy striker that loves to bang throws his punches from his hips and from crazy angles.   Then you have the BJJ guru Ryan Hall who has sick leg lock game.  So here is the thing, Ryan Hall is not athletic. He is not going to be able to execute a takedown on Artem.  I’m rooting for Ryan Hall.  I just learned he lives Falls Church VA which is very close to where I live in Washington DC.   He doesn’t have the abilities to execute his game.  What we saw from the Ultimate fighter is, Connor was able to coach  Saul how to get out of those tricky situations. 

Prediction:  Artem is going to when by KO.  Artem is $5000 on kountermove.  That’s a good pick for a guy who has shown he can finish fights.  

Frankie Edgar vs Chad Mendes 

Wow!!Wow!!Wow.  This fight is going to be epic.  Frankie just does everything right.  Frankie just mixes everything perfectly,  his strikes, footwork, and wrestling into just great performances.   We have seen the best of Frankie, we saw what he did to Killer Cub Swanson.  I got up early in the morning to see his fight against Faber.  It’s hard to not give Frankie the nod.  On the other hand you got Chad “Money” Mendes.  This guy is dynamic wrestler with just one punch knockout power.   I think in this matchup you gotta give the power advantage to Mendes. 

Prediction: Fight of the Year Edgar by decision. 

My KM Card:                                     

Gabriel Gonzaga

Frankie Edgar

Tony Ferguson

Artem Lobov

Marcin Wazereick

Ultimate Fighter Finale Prediction.

In anticipation of the results of the last episode today.  I'm going out there right now to say I think its going to be Artem vs Saul.  I've been going back in forth about the whole Julian fight i can see Julian out pointing Artem but the head movement I saw from Julian I think Artem can land those power shots.  I also don't like calling a grown ass man "Juicy". 

VanZant vs Namjunas Fight Picks.

UFC FN 80 VanZant vs Namajunas

This is my first breakdown.  I’m going to go out and say this: I’m a human being.   I have bias.  I know this bias leads me to pick my fandom rather than actually analyzing past performances.  This is also the reason I’ve started this blog.  I really want to be held accountable for my picks and do the research necessary to provide my audience with solid analysis. I also really wanted to put some cool graphics in this blog but I don’t have the time. But expect more for the cards after this weekend.   

Lets start at the bottom of the card. 

Nathan Coy vs Danny Roberts

Nathan Coy fought in the last Ultimate fighter 20: Blackzillians vs American Top Team.  There were like 3 good fights that entire season. Nathan Coy wasn’t a part of any of them.  Nathan Coy is taking this fight on less than two weeks’ notice.  He has weird chest hair.  He is a wrestler that just wants to lay and pray.  He is 37 going on 45 or maybe he used to dabble in meth.  On the other hand we have a fighter making their Octagon debut. 

Octagon Debut fighters are the worst, here is why.

1. you never know the caliber opponent they fought in the past. 

2. So their 10-0 record could be padded

3. Octagon Jitters

4. You can’t find their fights on YouTube.

That being said the guy looks young, explosive and a gamer.  He is not a world beater but he is pretty well-rounded.  I have would have given my stamp of approval for Mr. Roberts against his previous opponent Michael Graves.  However watching Danny’s last fight he throws a looping left hook, gets taken down and his opponent goes straight into mount.  This is exactly what Nathan Coy is looking to do.  Danny eventually gets out of some bad positions and gets back to his feet to catch his opponent with an uppercut to knock him down and then finish the fight in the first round.  Yes I would like to see more angles and lateral movements from Danny Roberts.  (And for God’s sake please stay off the cage.) He has a good shot at winning with a finish if he does those simple things.

My prediction is Danny Roberts with 60% confidence.  The short notice and youth goes to Danny’s favor.  However, I’m only providing 60% because I can easily see Coy squeezing out a split decision, but my prediction is 2 round TKO Roberts. 

Under Kountermove Coy is $4600 and low probability of finishing or scoring any significant strikes and is not worth the money.  Danny Roberts has the tools to finish and is worth $4800. I have Danny Roberts in my Kountermove because he is priced right. 

Kailin Curran vs Emily Kagan

Kailin is young, hungry and an excellent striker.  She is only going to lose this fight if she does the same thing she did in the Alex Chambers fight. Which is to decide after she won every second of every round to jump in Emily’s guard so she could be arm-barred.  Emily Kagan has one shot to win and that is if she asks Kailin to stop punching and kicking her in the face and just jump into her guard so she can be arm-barred. 

My prediction  KO by Kailin in the first or second. She is younger,  prettier, and all-around better fighter. 

Zubaira Turkhugov vs Phillipe Nover

Zubaira is a Tiger Muay Thai guy.  He has a good power double; he likes to keep it standing for the most part.  Phillipe Nover will try to use his new wrestling skills.  Watching both Zubaria and Phillipe, I have to pick Zubaira.  Zubaira has better striking and foot movement.  Phillipe will probably look to wrestle his opponent again.  This strategy did not work out in his last fight as he ended up gassing at the end of the 3^rd round.  Based on Zubaira’s Kountermove value, $4900, this is a decent pick for a favorite.

Santiago Ponziniblo vs Andreas Stahl

Santiago has got this fight, Andreas’s only UFC fight was a loss against an overweight, octagon jittered Gilbert Burns who was too undersized to effectively use his jiu-jitsu skills. Stahl isn’t winning this one. The only thing he is bringing is pressure and that is not enough to win this fight.   Based on the Kountermove dollars, you can probably find a cheaper sure thing than Ponz. Confidence rating at 75%

Aljamain Sterling vs Johnny Eduardo

Aljamain Sterling is Longo Serra guy who is just a monster.  He is going to blow through Johnny Eduardo.  Al is not going to allow Johnny to knock him out like Wineland.  This is a sure win. 90% confidence  Aljamain will get the win but I am not terribly sure he will get the finish.  You are rolling the dice on the price.  

Antonio Carlos Junior vs Kevin Casey

*Hate Pick* Disclaimer – So I don’t like Kevin, he is steroid cheat and an overblown welterweight with overrated jiu-jitsu.  Kevin cuts a lot of weight, he should be affected by the IV ban.  Antonio is long enough to keep Casey away.  Casey will gas in the 3^rd round.  This is the value pick of this card. On Kountermove this is $4800 vs $4800 and Vegas odds have this -300 Carlos +250 Casey.  Best pick for a Kountermove Card. 

Omari Akhmedov vs Sergio Morales

Sergio Morales is fucking scrappy Brazilian grappling champ.  He is taking this fight on short notice. However his opponent Omari has never fought anyone notable to date and his last opponent’s knee just blew out.  He is a lumbering Russian who seems to gas in the last round.  His overly muscled build isn’t made for long fights and Sergio Morales is hard to put away.   Omari is the favorite but at $4600 this is your upset pick.  If you picked Sage Northcutt because you don’t know how Kountermove works with dollar values this is your pick at $4600 Sergio to $5000 Omari. 

Tim Means vs John Howard

Not going to elaborate on this, Tim is winning.  However I have a 60% confidence rate that Tim can finish because John Howard is tough. 

Sage Northcutt vs Cody Pfister

I’m going to say I picked Cody to win on his last fight for UFC 189.  There is no way he is going to win this fight.  They gave Sage a slow unathletic grinder, this fight will end in the first round. 

Sage will ruin your budget on Kountermove go with another one of the sure wins. 

Michael Chiesa vs Jim Miller

This is going to be a tough fight.  We have two grapplers. None of them are known for the knockout ability.  Vegas Odds:  Miller +105 Chiesa -125 making Chiesa the slight favorite.  Chiesa is the longer fighter with a 5 inch reach advantage.  However Chiesa only uses his striking to set up takedowns.  This is going to be a back ‘n forth match, with the majority of the action on the ground.  I’m calling this a split decision.   Jim Miller hasn’t lost a step yet but I think the Ultimate Fighter winner has enough experience to hang with Jim and to squeak out a split decision.  This will be a close fight.  I would avoid this fight all together as I doubt it will generate enough points to be worth your fantasy dollar cap.

Main Event:  Rose Namajunas vs  Paige VanZant

Vegas Odds:  -185 VanZant  +160 Namajunas.  Kountermove  has it $4900 VanZant, $5300 Namajunas.  I always find it intriguing when Kountermove goes against Vegas odds.  They had it right when they priced Weidman over Anderson in the first fight and they are going against Vegas again in the Main Event and I agree with them.  Looking at their records Rose 3-2 and Paige 6-1 on paper I see why you would favor Paige but I think people are forgetting Rose’s fights in the TUF house and how she buzz sawed through her opponents.  She did lose in the finale however she started to believe that she could go out there balls to the wall, throwing caution into the wind against a really good takedown artist, and she paid for it.  I believe she learned from this mistake and won’t get out there buck wild again. 

Paige is a very predictable fighter. She is going to close the distance, clinch, push you up to the cage, takedown, ground and pound to set up a finish.  She is going to try and chain through this strategy the entire fight.  Rose has more tools in her toolbox.  Rose has the advantage in the striking realm, for the brief time she was standing with Angela Hill she was winning in the exchanges. She was able to circle out and establish her jab to score until she stepped in for a right hand that turned into a takedown and started  the beginning of the end of the fight for Angela Hill. I don’t see Paige being able to effectively control the fight without putting herself in a lot of danger.   Rose’s key to victory: she will need keep the distance and making Paige stay on the outside.  When it does get into the clinch, Rose will end up in the dominant position. She has the grappling advantage.  She proved it in the TUF House; don’t forget her flying arm-bar. Thug Rose all day.  

MY KM Picks

Tim Means

Zubaira Tukhugov

Anonio Carlos Jr.

Rose Namajunas

Danny Roberts